{"schemaVersion":"1.0","schema":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/schema","canonical":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001","formats":{"html":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001","pdf":"https://ahmednadhir.com/records/signal-to-state-ke-ond-2026-001-revision-1-16-2026-10-13.pdf","json":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/ke-ond-2026-001","csv":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/ke-ond-2026-001?format=csv"},"record":{"id":"KE-OND-2026-001","slug":"ke-ond-2026-001","title":"Kenya’s October–December 2026 rains: the state of public preparedness","shortTitle":"Kenya · October–December 2026 short rains","jurisdiction":"Kenya","evidenceRegion":"Kenya, read with relevant Greater Horn guidance","opened":"9 September 2026","openedIso":"2026-09-09","reviewed":"13 October 2026","reviewedIso":"2026-10-13","revision":"1.16","state":"Decision window open","territory":"kenya","hazard":"seasonal-rainfall","systems":["public-health","water","livestock","agriculture","infrastructure","disaster-preparedness","public-finance"],"activeSignal":"Decision-maker guidance from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced rainfall during October–December. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority now lists its seven-day bulletin for 13–19 October. Kiambu Township Ward reports targeted drainage and sewer works at named locations, while the national Contingent Emergency Response Project remains an unactivated financing framework.","scopeNote":"The assessment concerns decisions within Kenya. Greater Horn forecasts are used where they bear directly upon the Kenyan outlook or a cross-border consequence."},"currentAssessment":{"latestChange":{"date":"13 October 2026","title":"Kiambu moves from coordinated readiness to reported drainage execution at named sites.","detail":"A government report published on 12 October says a multi-agency team is clearing silt, unblocking, repairing and constructing drainage and water pathways in Kiamumbi, Kiambu Township and Thindigua. It identifies county, water and national roads actors and reports culverts, trenches, gabions and sewer flushing at named locations. The account establishes reported execution, but not work orders, contracts, finance, expenditure, inspection or completed protection."},"nextDecision":{"title":"Publish Kiambu’s work authority and finance trail, and Kisii’s bid outcome after the stated deadline.","timing":"Kisii’s stated bid deadline passed on 12 October 2026 at 10am, local time, but no award timetable or outcome was located. Kiambu gives no completion date for the drainage work. The national seven-day forecast now covers 13–19 October, and no date for national emergency-finance approval or activation is stated.","detail":"Kiambu’s county and partner institutions should publish the work instructions, site programme, contracts or in-house authority, finance, expenditure, inspection and completion records. Kisii’s health department must publish the bid opening, evaluation, award, contract and receipt trail. The open finance and delivery questions in Machakos, Mombasa, Marsabit, Nyandarua and Makueni also remain consequential."},"responsibility":{"title":"Kiambu’s county, water and roads institutions own the local works trail; Kisii owns the procurement outcome; the National Treasury owns any national emergency-finance request.","detail":"Kiambu Township Ward and the county environment department must account for their work, with Kiambu Water and Sewerage Company, the Kenya National Highways Authority and the Kenya Urban Roads Authority responsible for the measures attributed to them. Kisii’s health department retains the procurement decision. Other county and programme actors retain their existing responsibilities, while the National Treasury retains any national CERP activation and funds-flow role."},"verifiedAction":{"title":"Seventeen response entries are documented; eighteen counties have measures reported under way.","detail":"Kiambu moves from a readiness process to reported execution; its existing grouped county evidence is enriched, so the response-entry count does not rise. The count describes evidenced signals, commitments, procurement and reported execution, not 17 completed interventions. The national emergency-finance manual remains an enabling framework, with approval, activation and release open."},"openEvidence":{"title":"Kiambu’s work authority, contracts, finance and completion evidence remain open.","detail":"The report identifies institutions and locations but supplies no work orders, contracts, budget authority, release, expenditure, inspection or completed-site records. Kisii’s award and distribution, Machakos’s finance and deployment, Mombasa’s work-site and finance trail, Marsabit’s crisis-modifier amount and delivery, Nyandarua’s 75 million Kenyan shillings (KSh) transaction trail, Makueni’s Emergency Fund transactions and national emergency-finance activation also remain open."}},"decisionTrace":[{"code":"T0","stage":"Signal","question":"What did the authoritative forecasts say, for which places and period?","finding":"The enhanced-rainfall seasonal signal persists. The bulletin issued 30 September advances onset for northern counties to the first–second week of October and south-eastern counties to the second–third week; coastal rains are described as continuing from September. Local readiness decisions therefore have less lead time.","status":"Verified","href":"#known"},{"code":"T1","stage":"Trigger","question":"What official action followed the forecasts?","finding":"IGAD member states have adopted a regional Call to Action, Kenya’s Ministry of Health has issued an operating advisory to all 47 counties and the national government has directed every county to prepare a response strategy. Later local actions include reported drainage execution in Kiambu, drainage and rescue-readiness execution in Machakos and Mombasa, a RANGE crisis-modifier launch in Marsabit and a Nyandarua preparedness allocation and clean-up.","status":"Verified","href":"#trigger"},{"code":"T2","stage":"Authority","question":"Which institutions are responsible?","finding":"Kenya’s delivery responsibility lies with the National Treasury, national coordination bodies, sector institutions and county governments. The CERP manual assigns the Treasury the activation request and funds-flow role and designates the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development’s Food Systems Resilience Project unit as coordinating implementation unit. These prospective roles apply only after approval and activation. Existing forecast, preparedness and local-delivery mandates continue.","status":"Mapped","href":"#authority"},{"code":"T3","stage":"Commitment","question":"What funding, instructions or procurement have been announced?","finding":"The CERP manual and May omnibus agreement establish a conditional national route for repurposing eligible undisbursed World Bank portfolio balances, but no activation or release is evidenced. Makueni names its Emergency Fund for reported works; Nyandarua reports KSh75 million set aside; and the RANGE crisis modifier is presented as funded. None of these statements supplies a complete appropriation, release, procurement, payment and completion trail. The RANGE account is internally inconsistent about the amount available for current anticipatory action.","status":"Verified","href":"#commitment"},{"code":"T4","stage":"Execution","question":"What implementation has been reported, and what remains unverified?","finding":"The CERP operating framework is published, but activation, budget authority and disbursement are not evidenced. Reports from 18 counties now describe separate measures under execution. Kiambu reports drainage and sewer works at named locations; Machakos reports completed joint rescue training, drainage clearing, sensitisation and multi-agency activation; Mombasa reports drain clearing, box-culvert work and training for 300 officers. Marsabit has launched an anticipatory-action mechanism, but delivery remains incomplete. Kisii’s award and receipt remain open.","status":"Reported","href":"#execution"},{"code":"T5","stage":"Outcome","question":"Can the effects on people and public services be assessed yet?","finding":"Not yet assessable from the evidence in this file. The October–December season has begun; outcome assessment requires dated observations of exposure, service continuity and the performance of preparedness measures.","status":"Not assessable at this stage","href":"#outcome"}],"materialChanges":[{"date":"13 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-13","context":"Kiambu County · targeted drainage and sewer works in Kiambu Township Ward","changed":"A Kenya News Agency report published on 12 October says a multi-agency team is clearing silt and unblocking, repairing and constructing drainage and water pathways in Kiamumbi, Kiambu Township and Thindigua. It reports culverts and a trench near Equity Bank, repaired drainage and gabions along Nova–Posta Road, a trench towards Kasarini Primary School and sewer-line flushing in Thindigua.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Kiambu intensifies flood prevention works in Kiamumbi, Township and Thindigua, published 12 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/kiambu-intensifies-flood-prevention-works-in-kiamumbi-township-and-thindigua/","decision":"Publish the work instructions, site programme, responsible unit for each location, procurement or in-house authority, budget and release, expenditure, inspection and completion records.","assessment":"Kiambu moves from a directive and coordination process to reported execution at named locations. Its existing grouped county evidence is enriched rather than counted as a new response entry. The report does not establish work orders, contracts, finance, expenditure, inspection or completed protection.","effect":"Kiambu drainage execution reported; authority, finance and completion open"},{"date":"12 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-12","context":"Machakos County · flood-rescue training, drainage work and multi-agency activation","changed":"A Kenya News Agency report published on 11 October says Kenya Red Cross in Machakos and the county fire and rescue service concluded a two-day joint water-rescue course at Athi River Dam. It also reports public sensitisation, drainage clearing in several towns, publication of emergency contacts and activation of a multi-agency response system.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Red Cross, Machakos fire teams conduct joint floods drill ahead of El Niño, published 11 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/red-cross-machakos-fire-teams-conduct-joint-floods-drill-ahead-of-el-nino/","decision":"Publish the training roster and readiness checks, identify the drainage towns and sites, responsible units and completion status, and disclose the multi-agency activation instrument, mobilisation period, deployment plan and finance trail.","assessment":"Machakos moves from a directive and readiness process to reported execution. The existing county evidence is enriched rather than counted as a new response entry. The report does not establish budget authority, release, procurement, expenditure, deployment or completed protection.","effect":"Machakos execution reported; finance, deployment and completion open"},{"date":"11 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-11","context":"Mombasa County · reported drainage execution and multi-agency training","changed":"A Kenya News Agency report published on 10 October says maintenance teams are clearing major storm drains, removing waste and finishing box culverts across Mombasa. It also reports that 300 county and national officers have participated in rescue, marine-safety, casualty-management and emergency-response exercises.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Mombasa braces for El Niño-induced rains, published 10 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/mombasa-braces-for-el-nino-induced-rains/","decision":"Identify the active drainage sites, contracts and resource mobilisation; complete and inspect the work; publish the deployment and readiness records for the trained teams.","assessment":"Mombasa moves from a directive and planned deployment to reported execution and completed training. The existing response entry is enriched rather than counted twice. The report does not establish the earlier KSh20 million allocation’s release or expenditure, the full 3,000-person deployment, or completed drainage protection.","effect":"Mombasa execution and training reported; finance and completion open"},{"date":"11 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-11","context":"Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu · RANGE anticipatory-action mechanism","changed":"Government reporting published on 10 October records the launch in Marsabit of the RANGE Crisis Modifier for Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu. It identifies drainage clearance, rangeland and water rehabilitation, livestock vaccination, cash for work, livestock offtake and an e-voucher vaccination route as intended interventions.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Marsabit launches early action plan, published 10 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/marsabit-launches-early-action-plan-ahead-of-forecast-el-nino-rains/","decision":"Publish the activation trigger, county work plans, beneficiaries, accredited providers, release and procurement records, delivery dates and verified outputs for each county.","assessment":"Marsabit moves from national-programme coverage to a county-hosted anticipatory-action launch. A new response entry is admitted. The report first describes a four per cent crisis-modifier set-aside within a €15 million programme, then attributes €15 million to current anticipatory action; no amount is treated as verified until the programme owners reconcile the figures and publish the transaction trail.","effect":"Anticipatory-action mechanism launched; amount and delivery trail open"},{"date":"11 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-11","context":"Nyandarua County · preparedness allocation and clean-up launch","changed":"A government news report published on 8 October says Nyandarua set aside KSh75 million for El Niño preparedness and records a clean-up flag-off in Ol Kalou. It separately reports larger environmental allocations for dam desilting, boreholes and conservation, which are not treated as spending under the KSh75 million preparedness statement.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Nyandarua sets aside KSh75 million, published 8 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/nyandarua-sets-a-side-sh75-million-for-el-nino-preparedness/","decision":"Publish the KSh75 million budget authority, programme of work, release, procurement and expenditure records, and document the Ol Kalou clean-up’s scope and completion.","assessment":"Nyandarua moves from no recent county-specific record to a reported allocation and initial activity. A new response entry is admitted. The statement does not establish appropriation, release, procurement, expenditure or county-wide delivery.","effect":"Nyandarua allocation and clean-up reported; finance trail open"},{"date":"10 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-10","context":"Makueni County · reported flood-protection execution and Emergency Fund route","changed":"A county account dated 8 October and published on 9 October reports ongoing works at the Kyanzonzo and Munyuni rivers in Kalawa Ward, including a sand dam and a one-metre retaining wall, and inspection of the 400-metre Uma–Kalambya Road in Kithungo/Kitundu Ward. The county says the projects are being implemented through its Emergency Fund and names Kitundu, Mbitini, Nzaui, Kalawa and Kiima Kiu as vulnerable areas targeted by the programme.","source":"Makueni County Government · El Niño preparedness works, dated 8 October and published 9 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%B8%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BB%F0%9D%97%B6-%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%98%80-%F0%9D%97%A8%F0%9D%97%BD-%F0%9D%97%98%F0%9D%97%B9/","decision":"Complete the named works and publish the Emergency Fund authority, allocation and release, procurement or work orders, payments, inspection and completion evidence.","assessment":"Makueni moves from a published preparedness requirement to reported local execution with a named financing route. The verified-response count remains 15 because this enriches the existing Makueni entry rather than adding a second action. The evidence does not establish the fund’s appropriation or release, contract values, payments or completed protection; the national emergency-finance framework remains unactivated.","effect":"Makueni execution and funding route verified; transaction trail and completion open"},{"date":"8 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-08","context":"Kenya · Kisii health preparedness procurement","changed":"The Kisii County notice listed on 2 October is verified with tender 2407736-2026/2027: a KSh45 million estimate, bids closing 12 October at 10am and a delivery window 5–30 days after a purchase order or contract. The earlier file established procurement initiation but lacked these terms.","source":"Kisii County Government · health procurement notice and tender document, listed 2 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://kisii.go.ke/download/tender-notice-in-the-department-of-medical-services-public-health-sanitation/","decision":"Complete the bid process on 12 October, then publish the evaluation, award, funding authority, contract date, receipt and onward distribution records.","assessment":"The local procurement decision is now dated and its estimate documented. Verified response count remains 15 because this enriches the existing Kisii entry. No appropriation, release, award, payment or delivery is established; national emergency-finance activation remains open.","effect":"Kisii procurement deadline and estimate verified; delivery open"},{"date":"7 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-07","context":"Kenya · contingent emergency finance","changed":"The National Drought Management Authority published Kenya’s final Contingent Emergency Response Project manual on 6 October. It defines the institutions, evidence, request, Crisis Response Plan, procurement, budgeting and funds-flow steps through which up to 10 per cent of eligible undisbursed World Bank portfolio balances may be repurposed in a World Bank financial year.","source":"National Drought Management Authority · final Kenya CERP manual","sourceHref":"https://knowledgeweb.ndma.go.ke/Public/Resources/ResourceDetails.aspx?doc=cba3c230-29a1-4a25-9c7f-b91faadb70d8","decision":"The National Treasury must decide whether an eligible emergency is occurring or imminent and, if so, identify host operations and amounts, submit an Activation Request and Crisis Response Plan, and obtain World Bank acceptance and no-objection before funds can move.","assessment":"The prospective finance route moves from a reported discussion to a verified enabling framework. It is not yet available finance for preparedness or response: the World Bank project remains in appraisal and no activation, allocation, procurement under an approved response plan or disbursement is evidenced.","effect":"Finance framework verified; no activation or release"},{"date":"2 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-02","context":"Kenya · revised onset guidance, verified 2 October","changed":"The monthly bulletin advances northern onset from the second–third to the first–second week of October and south-eastern onset from the third–fourth to the second–third week. Coastal rains now continue from September rather than beginning in the second–third week of October.","source":"Kenya Meteorological Service Authority · October bulletin, issued 30 September; listed 1 October","sourceHref":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/5166/Monthly_weather_Forecast_for_October_2026.pdf","decision":"Accelerate county stocks, drainage, evacuation and service-readiness decisions; check local short-range warnings.","assessment":"Preparedness lead time is shorter. The enhanced-rainfall seasonal outlook and uneven-delivery assessment remain; the forecast is not evidence of a local flood or completed readiness.","effect":"Decision window shortened"},{"date":"2 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-02","context":"Wajir · national-agency procurement newly verified 2 October","changed":"The Northern Water Works Development Agency’s notice dated 14 September advertised Masalale–Kilkey flood-control works in Eldas, with a stated closing date of 30 September. The tender document specifies water pans, dykes, gabions and a box culvert.","source":"Northern Water Works Development Agency · tender NWWDA/T/CW/001/2026-2027","sourceHref":"https://www.nwwda.go.ke/index.php/news-events/tenders/123-tenders-14th-september-2026-flood-control-and-restoration-project","decision":"Establish the tender outcome, contract price, funding trail and achievable works timetable.","assessment":"Wajir now has primary procurement evidence alongside county planning. The agency says funds were received but supplies no transaction trail here. No award, payment or completed protection is verified; a direct causal link to the seasonal forecast is not asserted.","effect":"Procurement evidenced"},{"date":"2 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-02","context":"Makueni · resource mobilisation on 30 September","changed":"The county published a KSh152 million preparedness estimate following a partners’ conference in Wote.","source":"Makueni County Government · published 1 October; event 30 September","sourceHref":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/makueni-projects-sh152m-for-el-nino-preparedness/","decision":"Identify approved county and partner contributions, release dates and assigned evacuation and essential-service measures.","assessment":"A quantified requirement is now public. It is not evidence that KSh152 million was appropriated, released or spent. The county remains at planning stage in this file.","effect":"Financing requirement specified"},{"date":"1 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-01","context":"Kilifi County · Malindi sanitation accountability","changed":"A Parliament notice published on 24 September records a Senate committee direction for Malindi sewerage and a request for a roadmap, budget commitments and timeline. The underlying visit date is unspecified.","source":"Parliament of Kenya · Senate oversight notice","sourceHref":"https://www.parliament.go.ke/node/26438","decision":"Kilifi’s executive must identify the works, finance and timetable, and supply evidence of implementation before onset; no hearing date is stated.","assessment":"The local accountability trace is stronger. Municipal statements about reallocation and cleaning remain claims; no release or completion evidence is established here. The wider uneven-preparedness assessment is unchanged.","effect":"Local accountability strengthened"},{"date":"23 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-23","context":"Kenya agriculture · forecast-to-advice delivery pathway","changed":"The Kenya Meteorological Department published a Forecast-to-Farmer pilot for the October–December short rains. It will make authorised, localised four-week forecasts available through an application programming interface for translation and dissemination by participating extension, research, media, SMS and digital advisory channels.","source":"Kenya Meteorological Department · Forecast-to-Farmer pilot","sourceHref":"https://meteo.go.ke/publications/kenya-launches-forecast-to-farmer-pilot-to-bring-improved-weather-forecasts-to-farmers-at-scale/","decision":"KMD and participating organisations now need to show where the pilot operates, when authorised forecasts and advisories are issued, which farmers receive them, whether the information is understood and useful, and what operational lessons will shape the March–May 2027 rollout.","assessment":"A national agricultural climate-service commitment and delivery architecture are now verified. The announcement does not establish a new public appropriation, procurement, farmer-level receipt, behaviour change or outcome. Wider Kenyan preparedness finance and county execution remain open.","effect":"Agricultural delivery pathway verified"},{"date":"18 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-18","context":"Greater Horn · adopted regional preparedness commitment","changed":"IGAD published the High-Level Call to Action adopted on 17 September. Member states commit to activate national and subnational contingency plans before the rains, pre-position essential supplies, strengthen health and livestock surveillance, protect critical infrastructure and connect anticipatory finance to agreed triggers.","source":"Intergovernmental Authority on Development · High-Level Call to Action","sourceHref":"https://igad.int/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/IGAD-High-Level-Call-to-Action-on-El-Nino-Preparedness-Anticipatory-Action-and-Resilience.pdf","decision":"Kenya now needs to identify which national and county plans are activated, who owns each action, which thresholds release finance, what supplies are pre-positioned and what evidence will be reported before and during the October–December season.","assessment":"The regional decision outcome is now verified and strengthens the commitment stage of the trace. It does not establish a Kenyan appropriation, release, procurement or completed delivery. The accompanying Technical Annex, said to contain country priorities, responsibilities and timelines, remains open evidence.","effect":"Regional commitment verified"},{"date":"17 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-17","context":"Greater Horn · regional ministerial decision point","changed":"The official event page now marks the 15–17 September High-Level Ministerial Forum as ended. It had identified an IGAD Ministerial Call to Action and a Regional Preparedness and Early Action Technical Report as intended outputs, but neither document was linked or otherwise located in the authoritative sources reviewed on 17 September.","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre · ministerial forum notice","sourceHref":"https://www.icpac.net/events/high-level-ministerial-forum-on-el-ni%C3%B1o-preparedness-in-the-horn-of-africa/","decision":"IGAD and ICPAC need to publish the endorsed text, named responsibilities, anticipatory-finance arrangements and delivery dates so that the regional decision can be assessed and followed into national action.","assessment":"The scheduled regional decision window has passed, but its substantive result is not yet assessable from the published record. Kenya’s preparedness assessment is unchanged; publication of the two expected outputs is now an immediate evidence test.","effect":"Regional outcome remains open"},{"date":"15 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-15","context":"Kenya health sector · all-county operating instruction","changed":"The Ministry of Health issued an advisory to all 47 counties specifying emergency coordination, protection of at-risk health facilities, medicine and vaccine availability, disease surveillance, drinking-water safety, malaria prevention, ambulance and referral readiness, nutrition, continuity of essential services, mental-health support and public communication.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Ministry of Health preparedness advisory","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/ministry-of-health-activates-el-nino-preparedness-ahead-of-october-rains/","decision":"County health authorities now need to show which coordination structures are active, which facilities and populations are prioritised, what stocks and referral arrangements are in place, and how the measures are financed and verified.","assessment":"The evidence moves health preparedness beyond confirmation of a national plan to a more specific operating instruction. It strengthens the national trigger without establishing county implementation or readiness.","effect":"Health trigger strengthened"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"National review of county preparedness","changed":"County-level evidence published between 17 August and 12 September presents markedly different stages of preparedness across Kenya: reported execution in 13 counties, procurement in Kisii, directives or planning in 20 counties, and substantial gaps elsewhere.","source":"Climate Preparedness Record · 47-county evidence register","sourceHref":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001#county-register","decision":"County plans need to identify the responsible office, funded measure, procurement or work instruction, delivery date and public evidence of completion before the October rains.","assessment":"Preparedness activity is more extensive than earlier evidence showed, although its depth varies sharply. Five counties appear only in national programme announcements, seven have no recent county-specific public record, and one has a reported implementation gap.","effect":"County preparations are uneven"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Mombasa County · urban drainage and flood prevention","changed":"From 14 September, Mombasa will restrict roadside construction mixing that obstructs drainage. The Governor also announced a phased deployment of 3,000 young people to clear drains, culverts and waterways after flooding disrupted access in several neighbourhoods.","source":"Kenyans.co.ke · Mombasa flood-prevention directive","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/127003-mombasa-bans-site-mixing-ballast-sand-and-cement-mitigate-flooding","decision":"Enforcement records, deployment rosters, named work sites and completion reports will determine whether the measures reduce obstruction before heavier rainfall.","assessment":"The directive and deployment announcement constitute a formal county response. Evidence of mobilisation, expenditure and completed clearance remains unavailable.","effect":"Mombasa response specified"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Kenya · all-county readiness and livestock preparedness","changed":"The national government directed all 47 counties to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare response strategies. A separate KSh2.1 billion livestock preparedness plan was reported for 24 counties.","source":"Kenya News Agency · all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","decision":"County strategies, the official livestock plan, county allocations, releases and delivery schedules are required to establish how the national direction will be carried out.","assessment":"The national instruction and reported sector commitment establish a preparedness mandate. County compliance, sector allocations and the movement of funds remain unclear.","effect":"National preparedness mandate established"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Garissa County · flood readiness and emergency response","changed":"Garissa reported a preparedness plan, mapped hotspots and evacuation centres, and established weekly coordination. The Kenya Red Cross reported that first-line responders and emergency supplies had been positioned, with boats and vehicles available or on standby.","source":"The Star · Garissa preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/north-eastern/2026-09-07-garissa-steps-up-el-nino-preparedness-as-heavy-rains-loom","decision":"The county plan, resource inventory, site-level coverage and financing are needed to establish the scale and durability of the reported preparations.","assessment":"Garissa has identifiable planning and reported mobilisation. Quantities, county financing and independent confirmation of delivery remain unavailable.","effect":"Garissa preparedness evidence strengthened"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Greater Horn · regional preparedness and anticipatory finance","changed":"The Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development scheduled a High-Level Ministerial Forum on El Niño preparedness for 15–17 September. The intended outputs are a ministerial call to action and a regional preparedness and early-action technical report.","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · High-Level Ministerial Forum","sourceHref":"https://www.icpac.net/events/high-level-ministerial-forum-on-el-ni%C3%B1o-preparedness-in-the-horn-of-africa/","decision":"The forum is expected to identify preparedness measures, responsible institutions, anticipatory-finance arrangements and delivery deadlines before the October–December season.","assessment":"The regional decision date and convening responsibility are confirmed. Its proposed outputs will require assessment after publication.","effect":"Regional decision date confirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Kenya health sector · El Niño contingency planning","changed":"The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that the Ministry of Health had activated a Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan covering surveillance, laboratory readiness, water and sanitation, risk communication and continuity of essential services.","source":"WHO Kenya · health-system preparedness","sourceHref":"https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding","decision":"The plan now requires county assignments, responsible institutions, resources and an implementation timetable before the October–December rains.","assessment":"National health preparedness has moved into an active planning phase. The plan document, county assignments, finance, procurement and delivery records remain unavailable.","effect":"Health contingency planning confirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Mandera County · scenario planning and early action","changed":"Mandera County reported that it was developing a participatory scenario plan with the World Food Programme (WFP) and other partners to define likely scenarios and early actions.","source":"County Government of Mandera · preparedness notice","sourceHref":"https://mandera.go.ke/mandera-county-develops-participatory-scenario-plan-for-el-nino-preparedness/","decision":"The completed plan needs to identify multi-sector priorities, selected early actions, responsible institutions and the resources required for implementation.","assessment":"A county preparedness process is confirmed. The notice provides no completed plan, financing, procurement or field-delivery evidence.","effect":"Mandera planning confirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"North-eastern Kenya · sector guidance for enhanced rainfall","changed":"The Summary for Decision Makers from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced rainfall and provides sector guidance for agriculture, health, water, livestock, infrastructure and security.","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Summary for Decision Makers","sourceHref":"https://www.icpac.net/publications/summary-for-decision-makers-october-to-december-2026-season/","decision":"National and county institutions need to prioritise preparedness across health, water, livestock, agriculture, infrastructure and security in the areas facing the highest rainfall probability.","assessment":"The guidance strengthens the geographic and sector basis for preparedness while leaving the broader seasonal outlook unchanged.","effect":"North-eastern risk clarified"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Kenya · prospective disaster-risk finance","changed":"Reuters reported that Kenya and the World Bank were finalising a rapid-finance framework that could cover an eligible El Niño emergency.","source":"Reuters · reported rapid-finance process","sourceHref":"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenya-get-some-400-mln-emergency-world-bank-funds-within-six-weeks-source-says-2026-09-10/","decision":"A signed instrument, eligibility decision and public allocation are required before the framework can be treated as available finance for preparedness or response.","assessment":"The report identifies a prospective financing route. No primary project document, signed instrument, appropriation, amount or disbursement has been published.","effect":"Financing route remains unconfirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Kenya · legal mandate and institutional responsibility","changed":"The Meteorology Act, National Drought Management Authority Act, Constitution and Disaster Risk Financing Strategy identify the principal mandates for forecasting, drought readiness, county functions and risk finance.","source":"Meteorology Act, 2026","sourceHref":"https://new.kenyalaw.org/akn/ke/act/2026/7","decision":"Public institutions need to identify who owns forecast services, contingency processes, local delivery and the passage from risk information to finance.","assessment":"Institutional responsibility and the legal basis for financing can now be stated more precisely. The meteorological assessment is unchanged.","effect":"Institutional responsibility clarified"},{"date":"10 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-10","context":"Greater Horn · near-term heat and operational conditions","changed":"The forecast for 8–15 September from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development provides short-term information for decisions about heat exposure, water demand, outdoor work and livestock care.","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · weekly forecast","sourceHref":"https://www.icpac.net/weekly-forecast/08-15-september-2026/?region=1&resource_type=14","decision":"Health, water, labour and livestock authorities need to account for near-term heat exposure, water demand, outdoor work and animal care.","assessment":"The weekly forecast informs immediate operating conditions while leaving the October–December assessment unchanged.","effect":"Immediate forecast horizon included"},{"date":"9 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-09","context":"Kenya and the Greater Horn · October–December seasonal outlook","changed":"Regional and Kenyan seasonal outlooks established an October–December preparedness window for rainfall, flooding, drainage, pasture, water safety and continuity of essential services.","source":"Kenya Meteorological Department · October–December 2026 outlook","sourceHref":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/4790/OND_2026__Seasonal_Forecast.pdf","decision":"National and county authorities need to prepare for flooding, drainage pressure, pasture and water-safety risks, and disruption to essential services.","assessment":"The seasonal signal was sufficiently clear to warrant continuing scrutiny of public preparedness and delivery.","effect":"Seasonal outlook established"}],"evidence":[{"horizon":"County drainage and sewer execution","source":"Kenya News Agency · Kiambu Township Ward flood-prevention works","published":"Published 12 October 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026 preparedness in Kiamumbi, Kiambu Township and Thindigua","finding":"The government report names a multi-agency team and specific drainage, culvert, gabion, trenching and sewer-flushing work at several locations. It does not provide work orders, contracts, finance, expenditure, inspection or completed-site records.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/kiambu-intensifies-flood-prevention-works-in-kiamumbi-township-and-thindigua/"},{"horizon":"County rescue readiness and drainage execution","source":"Kenya News Agency · Machakos joint floods drill and response activation","published":"Published 11 October 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026 preparedness in Machakos","finding":"The report says a two-day joint water-rescue course concluded at Athi River Dam and reports drainage clearing, public sensitisation, emergency contacts and activation of a multi-agency response system. It does not identify finance, named drainage sites, the activation instrument, deployment records or completed protection.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/red-cross-machakos-fire-teams-conduct-joint-floods-drill-ahead-of-el-nino/"},{"horizon":"Coastal drainage and emergency readiness","source":"Kenya News Agency · Mombasa preparedness execution","published":"Published 10 October 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026 preparedness across Mombasa’s six sub-counties","finding":"The report places storm-drain clearance, waste removal and box-culvert work under way and says 300 county and national officers have completed emergency exercises. It does not provide contracts, expenditure, site-level completion or evidence that the announced 3,000-person deployment has occurred.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/mombasa-braces-for-el-nino-induced-rains/"},{"horizon":"Arid and semi-arid lands anticipatory action","source":"Kenya News Agency · RANGE Crisis Modifier launch","published":"Published 10 October 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026 anticipatory action in Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu","finding":"The county-hosted launch identifies drainage, rangeland, water, livestock-health, cash-for-work and offtake interventions. The account gives inconsistent finance descriptions; trigger, release, procurement, beneficiary and output records remain open.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/marsabit-launches-early-action-plan-ahead-of-forecast-el-nino-rains/"},{"horizon":"County preparedness allocation","source":"Kenya News Agency · Nyandarua preparedness and clean-up","published":"Published 8 October 2026; admitted at the 11 October review","validFor":"October–December 2026 preparedness in Nyandarua","finding":"The county executive reports KSh75 million set aside and a clean-up launched in Ol Kalou. Budget authority, release, procurement, expenditure, work sites and completion remain unverified.","status":"Sector plan reported","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/nyandarua-sets-a-side-sh75-million-for-el-nino-preparedness/"},{"horizon":"County execution and emergency financing","source":"Makueni County Government · El Niño preparedness works","published":"Account dated 8 October; published 9 October 2026","validFor":"October–December preparedness in named Makueni wards","finding":"The county reports ongoing works at the Kyanzonzo and Munyuni rivers and inspection of the 400-metre Uma–Kalambya Road. It identifies the County Emergency Fund as the implementation route. Appropriation, release, procurement, payment, inspection and completion records are not provided by the account.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%B8%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BB%F0%9D%97%B6-%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%98%80-%F0%9D%97%A8%F0%9D%97%BD-%F0%9D%97%98%F0%9D%97%B9/"},{"horizon":"Local procurement window","source":"Kisii County Government · Department of Medical Services, Public Health and Sanitation","published":"Notice listed 2 October 2026; verified 8 October","validFor":"Bids close 12 October 2026 at 10am; delivery 5–30 days after purchase order or contract","finding":"Tender 2407736-2026/2027 requests preparedness materials for community health promoters. The KSh45 million tender estimate is not an appropriation, release or contract value. Proposed items include job aids, public information materials, gumboots, power banks and raincoats; requirements do not establish receipt or distribution.","status":"Decision window","href":"https://kisii.go.ke/download/tender-notice-in-the-department-of-medical-services-public-health-sanitation/"},{"horizon":"National contingent emergency finance","source":"National Drought Management Authority · final Kenya CERP manual","published":"Published 6 October 2026; manual dated October 2026","validFor":"Six-year contingent framework; each activation limited to a 12-month implementation period","finding":"The manual defines an activation and delivery pathway for eligible crises, including El Niño-related agriculture, health, water and social-protection risks. It permits repurposing up to 10 per cent of eligible undisbursed World Bank portfolio balances in a World Bank financial year, but expressly commits no finance at approval and requires a separate government request, Crisis Response Plan and World Bank acceptance for each activation.","status":"Decision window","href":"https://knowledgeweb.ndma.go.ke/Public/Resources/ResourceDetails.aspx?doc=cba3c230-29a1-4a25-9c7f-b91faadb70d8"},{"horizon":"Immediate national forecast","source":"Kenya Meteorological Service Authority · weekly bulletin","published":"Listed 13 October 2026","validFor":"13–19 October 2026","finding":"The Authority lists a new national seven-day bulletin for 13–19 October, replacing the expired 6–12 October window. Its publication keeps county readiness decisions inside a current forecast cycle; it does not establish flooding, activation of emergency finance or completed local protection.","status":"Current forecast","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/our-products/7-days-forecast/"},{"horizon":"National monthly and updated seasonal timing","source":"Kenya Meteorological Service Authority · October bulletin","published":"Issued 30 September 2026; listed 1 October","validFor":"October and October–December 2026","finding":"Onset is brought forward for northern and south-eastern counties; coastal rains continue from September. The overall wet seasonal outlook remains.","status":"Current forecast","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/5166/Monthly_weather_Forecast_for_October_2026.pdf"},{"horizon":"National procurement in Wajir","source":"Northern Water Works Development Agency · Masalale–Kilkey tender","published":"Notice dated 14 September 2026; verified 2 October","validFor":"Stated closing date 30 September 2026","finding":"Flood-control works in Eldas entered procurement. The KSh3 million tender security is a bid guarantee, not the project budget. Award and completion remain open.","status":"Decision window","href":"https://www.nwwda.go.ke/index.php/news-events/tenders/123-tenders-14th-september-2026-flood-control-and-restoration-project"},{"horizon":"County resource mobilisation","source":"Makueni County Government · preparedness conference","published":"1 October 2026; event 30 September","validFor":"October–December preparedness","finding":"KSh152 million is projected for preparedness and resource mobilisation. Approval, release and expenditure are not established.","status":"Sector plan reported","href":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/makueni-projects-sh152m-for-el-nino-preparedness/"},{"horizon":"Local preparedness accountability","source":"Parliament of Kenya · Senate committee","published":"24 September 2026","validFor":"Malindi preparedness before rainfall onset; visit date unspecified","finding":"The committee directs Kilifi’s executive to establish sewerage and seeks a budgeted delivery roadmap. This verifies oversight action, not completed infrastructure.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.parliament.go.ke/node/26438"},{"horizon":"National agricultural climate service","source":"Kenya Meteorological Department · Forecast-to-Farmer pilot","published":"Release dated 22 September; published 23 September 2026","validFor":"Proof of concept during the October–December 2026 short rains","finding":"KMD has launched a pilot that will provide participating organisations with authorised, localised four-week forecasts for translation into agricultural advice through established extension, research, media, SMS and digital channels. The announcement identifies the pathway and proof-of-concept period; farmer-level delivery and results are not yet established.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/publications/kenya-launches-forecast-to-farmer-pilot-to-bring-improved-weather-forecasts-to-farmers-at-scale/"},{"horizon":"Regional preparedness commitment","source":"Intergovernmental Authority on Development · High-Level Call to Action","published":"Adopted and published 17 September 2026","validFor":"Preparation before and throughout the October–December 2026 season","finding":"Member states commit to activate national and subnational contingency plans before the rains, pre-position essential supplies, strengthen health and livestock surveillance, protect infrastructure and connect finance to agreed triggers. The Technical Annex containing country priorities, responsibilities and timelines was not publicly linked in the sources reviewed.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://igad.int/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/IGAD-High-Level-Call-to-Action-on-El-Nino-Preparedness-Anticipatory-Action-and-Resilience.pdf"},{"horizon":"Regional seasonal","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre · 74th Greater Horn Climate Outlook Forum technical statement","published":"Issued 18 August 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026","finding":"The 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum favours a wetter-than-normal season across much of the equatorial and southern Greater Horn, including Kenya, alongside flood and water-management risks.","status":"Established forecast","href":"https://www.icpac.net/documents/1118/GHACOF74_Final_Technical_Statement.pdf"},{"horizon":"Regional decision guidance","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Summary for Decision Makers","published":"Published 10 September 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026","finding":"The centre assigns a 90 per cent chance of enhanced rainfall to north-eastern Kenya and supplies sector guidance spanning agriculture, disaster risk management, health, livestock, conflict and peace, water, energy and the blue economy.","status":"Decision guidance","href":"https://www.icpac.net/publications/summary-for-decision-makers-october-to-december-2026-season/"},{"horizon":"National seasonal","source":"Kenya Meteorological Department · October–December 2026 outlook","published":"Issued 31 August 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026","finding":"Above-average rainfall is expected across most counties. Heavy rainfall events remain possible, while the outlook also identifies opportunities for water recharge, pasture and production.","status":"Established forecast","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/4790/OND_2026__Seasonal_Forecast.pdf"},{"horizon":"National preparedness","source":"National government · all-county preparedness direction","published":"Reported 10 September 2026","validFor":"Preparation before the 2026/27 El Niño rainfall period","finding":"All 47 counties were directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and develop local response strategies. The direction establishes a national-to-county trigger; it does not prove that every county has complied.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"},{"horizon":"National health operating guidance","source":"Ministry of Health · all-county El Niño preparedness advisory","published":"Published 15 September 2026","validFor":"Preparation before and during the 2026/27 El Niño rainfall period","finding":"All 47 counties were directed to activate emergency coordination, protect health facilities at risk, secure medicines and vaccines, strengthen disease and water-quality surveillance, prepare referral services and preserve essential care. The advisory specifies the required work; county activation, resources and delivery still need to be evidenced.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/ministry-of-health-activates-el-nino-preparedness-ahead-of-october-rains/"},{"horizon":"National health preparedness","source":"Ministry of Health · Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan","published":"Activation confirmed 8 September 2026","validFor":"2026/27 El Niño health risks","finding":"The plan brings national and county health actors together around surveillance, laboratories, water and sanitation, risk communication and continuity of essential services. The complete plan, county assignments, budgets and delivery schedule were not publicly available for this assessment.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding"},{"horizon":"National livestock preparedness","source":"National Livestock Sector El Niño Preparedness and Anticipatory Action Plan","published":"Launch reported 10–11 September 2026","validFor":"Initial implementation in 24 named counties","finding":"A KSh2.1 billion plan was announced for livestock health, feed, water, market and awareness measures in 24 counties. The official plan document, financing source, county shares, release status and delivery schedule were not publicly available for this assessment.","status":"Sector plan reported","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"horizon":"National weekly","source":"Kenya Meteorological Service Authority · weekly bulletin","published":"Issued 28 September 2026; listed 29 September","validFor":"29 September–5 October 2026","finding":"Rainfall is expected in parts of the Coast, including Kilifi, and other named counties. This is short-range guidance, not proof of seasonal onset, a local flood or preparedness delivery. The seasonal assessment is unchanged.","status":"Current forecast","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/5106/Weekly_Weather_Forecast_29th__September_to_5th_October_2026.pdf"}],"reach":[{"horizon":"Agricultural climate-service pilot · October–December","geography":"Kenya; participating pilot locations were not specified in the public release","finding":"The pilot is designed to move authorised four-week forecasts through organisations already serving farmers. National reach claims for existing channels are not treated as proof of the pilot’s geographic coverage or farmer receipt.","systems":"Meteorological services · agricultural extension · research · SMS and digital advice · farmer decisions"},{"horizon":"National preparedness · before onset","geography":"All 47 counties","finding":"Every county has been directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare a response strategy. A subsequent health advisory specifies emergency coordination, facility protection, stocks, surveillance, referral readiness and continuity of essential care across all 47 counties.","systems":"Disaster coordination · evacuation · health services · public communication · service continuity"},{"horizon":"Seasonal · October–December","geography":"North-eastern Kenya, arid and semi-arid counties, and pastoral systems","finding":"The 30 September bulletin advances onset for Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit to the first–second week of October. The livestock plan adds national programme coverage across 24 counties, but local execution remains uneven.","systems":"Water · livestock · health · access roads · humanitarian logistics"},{"horizon":"Seasonal · October–December","geography":"Towns, lake and river basins, slopes and coastal settlements","finding":"Reported action concentrates on drainage, evacuation, public health, farm inputs and response coordination. The presence of one measure does not establish readiness across a whole county or system.","systems":"Drainage · sanitation · agriculture · transport · settlements · trade"}],"jurisdictionEvidence":[{"jurisdiction":"Baringo","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"A multi-agency team was reported to be assessing readiness around Lakes Baringo and Bogoria; the available report does not identify completed protective works.","source":"Citizen Digital · high-risk county preparations","sourceHref":"https://citizen.digital/article/govt-identifies-18-high-risk-counties-ahead-of-el-nino-rains-n389875","published":"9 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report citing public authorities","openEvidence":"Publish named sites, assigned works, responsible officers and completion evidence.","finance":"The county is named in the KSh2.1 billion livestock plan, but no public record of its allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Bomet","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Flood hotspots were reported mapped in Chepalungu, Sotik and lower Bomet East, with public sensitisation and health-risk planning under way.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, mapped sites, health measures, owners and implementation dates.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Bungoma","status":"Implementation gap reported","finding":"Reporting on 10 September documented rain damage to homes and businesses and resident concern about preparedness, without identifying a fresh county measure in the review window.","source":"The Standard · Bungoma rain damage report","sourceHref":"https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/environment-climate/article/2001557508/heavy-rains-destroy-houses-and-business-premises-in-bungoma","published":"10 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Mainstream news report","openEvidence":"Publish the county response plan, active mitigation work, emergency contacts and affected-site assessment.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Busia","status":"Execution reported","finding":"A current report documented secondary dykes along River Nzoia and the return of farming on previously flooded land in Budalang’i, while noting that some areas remain exposed.","source":"Citizen Digital · Budalang’i preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://citizen.digital/article/el-nino-preparedness-in-budalangi-as-banks-built-along-river-nzoia-n388865","published":"23 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report; works began before the stated review period","openEvidence":"Publish current dyke condition, uncovered settlements, maintenance work and evacuation arrangements.","finance":"The available source does not establish the funding or current maintenance expenditure for the dyke works."},{"jurisdiction":"Elgeyo-Marakwet","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county states that it started receiving planting and top-dressing fertiliser for short-season crops ahead of the El Niño rainfall period.","source":"County Government of Elgeyo-Marakwet · fertiliser receipt","sourceHref":"https://elgeyomarakwet.go.ke/elgeyo-marakwet-receives-subsidized-fertilizer-ahead-of-el-nino/","published":"31 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish quantities received, distribution sites, beneficiary coverage and delivery records.","finance":"The source and value of the subsidy, and expenditure evidence, are not published in the record."},{"jurisdiction":"Embu","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Authorities were reported to have established a disaster preparedness committee to coordinate county preparations.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the committee mandate, county plan, risk map, assigned actions and meeting decisions.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Garissa","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county preparedness plan, hotspots and evacuation centres were reported mapped. Kenya Red Cross reported trained first-line responders, positioned supplies and equipment, and standby boats and vehicles.","source":"The Star · Garissa preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/north-eastern/2026-09-07-garissa-steps-up-el-nino-preparedness-as-heavy-rains-loom","published":"7 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named official and response-partner statements","openEvidence":"Publish the plan, resource inventory, quantities, exact locations, county responsibilities and replenishment schedule.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of its budget, release or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Homa Bay","status":"National programme only","finding":"The county is named in national health and livestock preparedness coverage, but no fresh county-specific implementation record was located in the review window.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish the current county contingency plan, assignments, flood works, stocks and delivery dates.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the national programmes was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Isiolo","status":"National programme only","finding":"The national livestock plan was launched in Isiolo and names the county for initial implementation, but no fresh county-owned action record was located.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish Isiolo’s assigned measures, county owner, target locations and delivery schedule.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kajiado","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"A public preparedness process was reported around flood prevention, local risk identification and community action, with residents urged to act before the rains.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Kajiado preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/kajiado-residents-step-up-plans-to-prevent-el-nino-flooding/","published":"28 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report","openEvidence":"Publish the agreed county actions, responsible departments, works and evidence of completion.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kakamega","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county published an official advisory for enhanced October–December rainfall. The advisory establishes communication, not completed preparedness work.","source":"County Government of Kakamega · public advisory","sourceHref":"https://kakamega.go.ke/public-advisory-notice-prepare-for-enhanced-el-nino-rains-october-december-2026/","published":"8 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the county response plan, high-risk locations, responsible units and dated mitigation work.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kericho","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Kipkelion East and West were reported mapped for mudslide risk, while municipal boards were clearing stormwater drains and issuing relocation advice.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish work locations, work orders, progress, completion records and shelter arrangements.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kiambu","status":"Execution reported","finding":"A multi-agency team is reported to be clearing silt and unblocking, repairing and constructing drainage and water pathways in Kiamumbi, Kiambu Township and Thindigua. Named work includes culverts, trenches, gabions and sewer-line flushing.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Kiambu Township Ward flood-prevention works","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/kiambu-intensifies-flood-prevention-works-in-kiamumbi-township-and-thindigua/","published":"12 October 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report naming locations and participating institutions","openEvidence":"Publish work instructions, the site programme, responsible unit for each location, inspection and completion records, and any evacuation arrangements.","finance":"No work order, contract, county budget authority, release, expenditure or completed-site record is evidenced in this file."},{"jurisdiction":"Kilifi","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The 11 September county report describes preparedness activity. Parliament’s 24 September notice adds a Malindi sanitation direction; reallocation and cleaning are municipal claims, with delivery still open.","source":"Parliament of Kenya · Malindi oversight; earlier county report retained in revision 1.8","sourceHref":"https://www.parliament.go.ke/node/26438","published":"24 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Verified oversight; municipal implementation claims","openEvidence":"Publish Malindi’s works roadmap, budget authority, payment and completion records, alongside county stock and evacuation evidence.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kirinyaga","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including local risks and assigned measures.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kisii","status":"Procurement initiated","finding":"The health department’s notice listed on 2 October specifies tender 2407736-2026/2027, a KSh45 million estimate and bids closing 12 October at 10am. Delivery is required 5–30 days after a purchase order or contract; its issue date is not evidenced.","source":"Kisii County Government · health procurement notice and tender document","sourceHref":"https://kisii.go.ke/download/tender-notice-in-the-department-of-medical-services-public-health-sanitation/","published":"Listed 2 October 2026; verified 8 October","evidenceBasis":"Primary county tender document; invitation and delivery schedule","openEvidence":"Publish evaluation, award, contract or purchase-order date, inspection, receipt and distribution to community health promoters.","finance":"KSh45 million is a tender estimate. Appropriation, release, award, payment and delivery are not evidenced in this file."},{"jurisdiction":"Kisumu","status":"Execution reported","finding":"About ten evacuation centres in Nyando were reported prepared and stocked with food, non-food items, medical supplies, mosquito nets and waterborne-disease medicines.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · Nyando preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named administrator statement in a news report","openEvidence":"Publish centre locations, stock inventories, custody records, access arrangements and the status of planned river and dyke work.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kitui","status":"National programme only","finding":"Kitui is named in the national livestock plan. Current farmer advice is public, but no fresh county-owned El Niño execution record was located in the review window.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, agricultural measures, target locations, owners and delivery evidence.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kwale","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Authorities were reported to have identified flood-prone areas, worked with village elders on warnings and identified halls, churches and mosques for evacuation use.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, verified shelter list, accessibility, responsible officers and readiness checks.","finance":"The county is named in the national health plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Laikipia","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The governor reported that blocked drainage clearance had started, alongside identification of locations where residents might require assistance or relocation.","source":"People Daily · Laikipia preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://peopledaily.digital/news/el-nino-rains-govenor-irungu-warns-residents-to-flee-high-risk-areas/amp","published":"4 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Governor statement reported by mainstream media","openEvidence":"Publish cleared locations, work progress, evacuation sites, completion evidence and response ownership.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Lamu","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county reported a disaster preparedness workplan and convened a four-day multi-stakeholder training on early warning, anticipatory action and coordinated response.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Lamu disaster workplan","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/county-inaugurates-disaster-management-plan-for-october-el-nino-rains/","published":"9 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report citing county officials","openEvidence":"Publish the workplan, resource allocation, evacuation sites, owners and evidence that planned actions have started.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Machakos","status":"Execution reported","finding":"A two-day joint water-rescue course at Athi River Dam is reported complete. The county also reports drainage clearing in several towns, public sensitisation, published emergency contacts and activation of a multi-agency response system.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Machakos joint floods drill and response activation","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/red-cross-machakos-fire-teams-conduct-joint-floods-drill-ahead-of-el-nino/","published":"Published 11 October 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report citing Kenya Red Cross in Machakos and the county fire and rescue service","openEvidence":"Publish the training roster and readiness checks, named drainage towns and sites, responsible units, activation instrument, mobilisation period, deployment plan and completion evidence.","finance":"No budget authority, allocation, release, procurement, expenditure or payment record for these measures is evidenced in this file."},{"jurisdiction":"Makueni","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county reports ongoing works at the Kyanzonzo and Munyuni rivers in Kalawa Ward, including a sand dam and a one-metre retaining wall, and inspection of the 400-metre Uma–Kalambya Road in Kithungo/Kitundu Ward. It says the projects are being implemented through its Emergency Fund. The earlier KSh152 million preparedness requirement remains a projected total.","source":"Makueni County Government · El Niño preparedness works","sourceHref":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%B8%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BB%F0%9D%97%B6-%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%98%80-%F0%9D%97%A8%F0%9D%97%BD-%F0%9D%97%98%F0%9D%97%B9/","published":"Account dated 8 October; published 9 October 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county account of an inspection and works reported under way","openEvidence":"Publish the Emergency Fund authority and allocation, release records, procurement or work orders, payments, inspection and completion evidence for the named sites.","finance":"The Emergency Fund route is identified, but appropriation, release, contract value, payment and completion are not evidenced in this file."},{"jurisdiction":"Mandera","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county is developing a participatory scenario plan with the World Food Programme, county departments, the National Drought Management Authority and humanitarian partners to identify scenarios and early actions.","source":"County Government of Mandera · preparedness notice","sourceHref":"https://mandera.go.ke/mandera-county-develops-participatory-scenario-plan-for-el-nino-preparedness/","published":"1 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the completed plan, selected early actions, responsible institutions, triggers and delivery timetable.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Marsabit","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Marsabit hosted the launch of the RANGE Crisis Modifier for Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu. The announced pathway covers drainage, rangeland and water rehabilitation, livestock vaccination, cash for work and offtake, but county-level delivery is not yet established.","source":"Kenya News Agency · RANGE Crisis Modifier launch","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/marsabit-launches-early-action-plan-ahead-of-forecast-el-nino-rains/","published":"10 October 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report; mechanism launch","openEvidence":"Publish the trigger, county work plan, beneficiary rules, accredited providers, release and procurement records, delivery dates and outputs.","finance":"The article gives inconsistent descriptions of the programme and crisis-modifier amount. No amount is treated as a verified county release or expenditure."},{"jurisdiction":"Meru","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Landslide and flood hotspots were reported identified. A KSh29 million emergency allocation was reported for 2026/27, while the same report said no current-year emergency relief allocation was available.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the hotspot map, response plan, current funding route, works and evidence of implementation.","finance":"KSh29 million is reported in the 2026/27 budget, but no public record of its release or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Migori","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county was reported to have allocated KSh44.2 million and purchased relief supplies including food and non-food items; residents later called for early mitigation in Nyatike.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Migori emergency preparedness","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/sh44-2-million-set-aside-in-migori-for-emergency-preparedness-and-response/","published":"17 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report","openEvidence":"Publish the budget line, stock inventory, storage, custody, distribution rules and flood-mitigation work.","finance":"KSh44.2 million and purchases are reported; release, payment and inventory records were not publicly available for this assessment."},{"jurisdiction":"Mombasa","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Maintenance teams are reported clearing major storm drains, removing waste and finishing box culverts. The county also reports that 300 county and national officers completed rescue, marine-safety, casualty-management and emergency-response exercises.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Mombasa preparedness execution","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/mombasa-braces-for-el-nino-induced-rains/","published":"10 October 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report citing county and national officials","openEvidence":"Publish named work sites, contracts, resource mobilisation, inspection and completion records, plus deployment evidence for trained teams.","finance":"A KSh20 million emergency allocation was reported earlier, but its release, procurement and spending remain unverified."},{"jurisdiction":"Murang’a","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Youth Service teams were reported deployed to clear drainage in major towns. The report also identified blocked sewer and feeder-road drainage gaps.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish deployment sites, work progress, completion records and action on the identified drainage gaps.","finance":"KSh27.7 million is reported for disaster management and social welfare, but no public record of its release or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nairobi","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Ongoing drainage and flood-mitigation works were reported across vulnerable areas under a multi-agency programme, with hotspot mapping and emergency coordination also active.","source":"Citizen Digital · Nairobi flood-preparedness programme","sourceHref":"https://citizen.digital/article/nairobi-county-accelerates-ksh2b-flood-preparedness-plan-ahead-of-expected-heavy-rains-n388764","published":"21 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report citing county programme information","openEvidence":"Publish the full site list, contracts, progress certificates, expenditure and completed-work verification.","finance":"A KSh2.4 billion programme and KSh2 billion drainage component are reported; release and expenditure are not established here."},{"jurisdiction":"Nakuru","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county reported a multi-agency response, bridge structural assessments across 11 sub-counties and planned immediate dredging and culvert unblocking in Naivasha.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Nakuru response measures","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/nakuru-activates-response-measures-ahead-of-el-nino/","published":"9 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report citing county officials","openEvidence":"Publish assessment findings, work orders, start and completion evidence, and high-risk settlement arrangements.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nandi","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including landslide and flood risks and assigned measures.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Narok","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"County preparedness around vulnerable communities, flood and landslide hotspots and critical infrastructure was reported; prior stormwater works and raised footpaths were cited in exposed areas.","source":"The Standard · Narok preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/rift-valley/article/2001556820/narok-lessons-from-past-floods-inform-readiness-for-rainy-season","published":"3 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Mainstream news report","openEvidence":"Publish the current plan, hotspot map, condition of previous works, response resources and delivery dates.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nyamira","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including local risks and assigned measures.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nyandarua","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county executive reports KSh75 million set aside for El Niño preparedness and records a clean-up flag-off in Ol Kalou. Separate environmental allocations are not treated as part of the preparedness amount without an attributable budget trail.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Nyandarua preparedness and clean-up","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/nyandarua-sets-a-side-sh75-million-for-el-nino-preparedness/","published":"8 October 2026; admitted 11 October","evidenceBasis":"Government news report citing the county executive","openEvidence":"Publish the KSh75 million budget authority, programme of work, release, procurement and expenditure, and document the clean-up’s scope and completion.","finance":"The statement establishes a reported set-aside, not appropriation, release, payment or county-wide delivery."},{"jurisdiction":"Nyeri","status":"Execution reported","finding":"KSh20 million was reported set aside; schools were identified for evacuation use, drainage improvements were reported in Mathira and Kieni, and each sub-county was said to have an ambulance.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the budget line and release, named centres, drainage-work progress, ambulance readiness and exercise records.","finance":"KSh20 million is reported, but no public record of its release, procurement or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Samburu","status":"National programme only","finding":"Samburu is named in the national livestock plan, but no fresh county-specific preparedness or execution record was located in the review window.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish the county contingency plan, pastoralist risks, assigned actions, resources and delivery evidence.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Siaya","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county convened a multi-sectoral session to refine its Multi-Hazard Contingency Plan, validate mapped risk zones and define early-warning and response arrangements.","source":"County Government of Siaya · preparedness meeting","sourceHref":"https://siaya.go.ke/siaya/county-government-of-siaya-strengthens-disaster-preparedness-ahead-of-projected-october-december-el-nino-rains/","published":"8 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the revised plan, departmental emergency budgets, mitigation works, owners and delivery dates.","finance":"Named in national health and livestock plans; dedicated departmental budgets were identified as a need, not a completed release."},{"jurisdiction":"Taita Taveta","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, river and settlement risks.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Tana River","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county and partners were reported to have prepared sector-specific advisories for safety and early action, with dissemination planned through radio, barazas, community structures and digital channels.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the advisories, current contingency plan, evacuation sites, responsible actors and evidence of delivery to exposed communities.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Tharaka-Nithi","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, river and road risks.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Trans Nzoia","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Emergency committees were reported activated, flood and landslide areas mapped across all five sub-counties and volunteers trained, while a spot check found no repair under way on damaged Kitale drainage.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report with implementation spot check","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, training completion, drainage works, evacuation routes, owners and delivery dates.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Turkana","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The County Steering Group began multi-agency contingency planning, with a command centre, lead agency, resource mobilisation and pre-positioning still framed as recommendations.","source":"County Government of Turkana · steering-group record","sourceHref":"https://turkana.go.ke/2026/09/03/county-steering-group-csg-to-prepare-a-multi-agency-contingency-plan-to-mitigate-anticipated-el-nino-phenomenon/","published":"3 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the completed plan, command-centre status, lead agency, stock positions, evacuation sites and assigned early actions.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Uasin Gishu","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Heavy machinery was reported deployed in Kapseret, Kesses and Turbo to clear waterways, open drainage routes and remove silt from culverts.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish work orders, exact sites, progress and completion evidence, and planned safety-centre readiness.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Vihiga","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, drainage and public-health risks.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Wajir","status":"Procurement initiated","finding":"The national water-works agency advertised Masalale–Kilkey flood-control works in Eldas. Earlier county emergency planning remains part of the record; neither establishes completion.","source":"Northern Water Works Development Agency · official tender","sourceHref":"https://www.nwwda.go.ke/index.php/news-events/tenders/123-tenders-14th-september-2026-flood-control-and-restoration-project","published":"14 September 2026; reviewed 2 October","evidenceBasis":"Primary procurement notice; national agency, not county government","openEvidence":"Establish evaluation, award, contract, work schedule and completed outputs. County stock placement and vaccination also remain open.","finance":"The agency states funds were received; no amount or release trail is supplied. KSh3 million is tender security, not project finance."},{"jurisdiction":"West Pokot","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county activated departments and disaster structures, validated a risk-assessment tool and planned field assessments, scenario planning and community sensitisation.","source":"The Star · West Pokot preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/rift-valley/2026-09-03-west-pokot-steps-up-preparedness-ahead-of-el-nino-rains","published":"3 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named county statements in a news report","openEvidence":"Publish field-assessment results, scenarios, assigned early actions, local owners and implementation evidence.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."}],"authority":[{"level":"County health procurement · Kisii","institutions":"Kisii County Department of Medical Services, Public Health and Sanitation","role":"Conduct the bid process and account for evaluation, award, contracting, inspection and receipt at the department’s Kisii Town offices. Onward distribution and public-service use require separate evidence.","basis":"Procuring entity and destination specified in tender 2407736-2026/2027","href":"https://kisii.go.ke/download/tender-notice-in-the-department-of-medical-services-public-health-sanitation/"},{"level":"Contingent emergency finance","institutions":"National Treasury; Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development CERP implementation unit; sector ministries; National Drought Management Authority; county governments; World Bank","role":"The Treasury determines whether to seek activation, identifies eligible host operations and amounts, signs the request and oversees funds flow. The designated implementation unit coordinates fiduciary and reporting duties. Sector institutions and counties deliver approved activities according to their mandates. The World Bank must accept the eligible-emergency determination and grant no-objection before disbursement conditions are lifted.","basis":"Final Kenya CERP manual, published 6 October 2026","href":"https://knowledgeweb.ndma.go.ke/Public/Resources/ResourceDetails.aspx?doc=cba3c230-29a1-4a25-9c7f-b91faadb70d8"},{"level":"National works agency · Wajir","institutions":"Northern Water Works Development Agency","role":"Conduct the Eldas flood-control procurement and establish the award, contract, supervision and delivery trail. County preparedness remains a separate responsibility.","basis":"Procuring entity identified in tender NWWDA/T/CW/001/2026-2027","href":"https://www.nwwda.go.ke/index.php/news-events/tenders/123-tenders-14th-september-2026-flood-control-and-restoration-project"},{"level":"Malindi sanitation and county oversight","institutions":"Kilifi County Executive; Malindi Municipality; Senate Standing Committee on Devolution and Intergovernmental Relations","role":"The executive and municipality must account for the local response. The committee seeks a works and budget timetable; no hearing date is given.","basis":"Parliament oversight notice, 24 September 2026","href":"https://www.parliament.go.ke/node/26438"},{"level":"National agricultural climate-service pilot","institutions":"Kenya Meteorological Department, Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation and participating advisory organisations","role":"KMD convenes the pilot, authorises forecast products and retains oversight. Participating organisations translate those forecasts into farmer-facing advice and distribute it through extension, media, SMS and digital channels during the proof-of-concept period.","basis":"KMD Forecast-to-Farmer release and Commitment Charter, 22–23 September 2026","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/publications/kenya-launches-forecast-to-farmer-pilot-to-bring-improved-weather-forecasts-to-farmers-at-scale/"},{"level":"Regional forecasts and ministerial coordination","institutions":"Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, and specialised regional institutions","role":"Provide regular impact-based forecasts, coordinate transboundary preparedness, strengthen animal-disease surveillance, support anticipatory finance, monitor the Call to Action and report to the IGAD Council of Ministers. A regional post-season review is due in the first quarter of 2027.","basis":"IGAD High-Level Call to Action, 17 September 2026","href":"https://igad.int/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/IGAD-High-Level-Call-to-Action-on-El-Nino-Preparedness-Anticipatory-Action-and-Resilience.pdf"},{"level":"National weather forecasts","institutions":"Kenya Meteorological Service Authority","role":"Provide and regulate meteorological services, including national, county and shorter-range forecast guidance.","basis":"Meteorology Act, 2026","href":"https://new.kenyalaw.org/akn/ke/act/2026/7"},{"level":"Drought readiness","institutions":"National Drought Management Authority","role":"Operate drought early warning and facilitate national and county contingency processes and preparedness strategies.","basis":"National Drought Management Authority Act, section 5","href":"https://new.kenyalaw.org/akn/ke/act/2016/4/eng@2022-12-31"},{"level":"National preparedness coordination","institutions":"National Disaster Operations Centre, Ministry of Interior and National Government Administration Officers","role":"Coordinate the national contingency approach, require county risk mapping and response strategies, and connect national and county emergency structures.","basis":"National all-county preparedness direction, 10 September 2026","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"},{"level":"National health preparedness","institutions":"Ministry of Health, Kenya National Public Health Institute and county health authorities","role":"Direct emergency coordination, protection of at-risk facilities, medicine and vaccine availability, surveillance, water safety, referral readiness, nutrition, mental-health support and continuity of essential services.","basis":"Ministry of Health preparedness advisory, 15 September 2026","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/ministry-of-health-activates-el-nino-preparedness-ahead-of-october-rains/"},{"level":"National livestock preparedness","institutions":"Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and participating county livestock functions","role":"Translate the seasonal signal into animal health, feed, water, market and awareness measures across the 24 counties named in the announced sector plan.","basis":"Reported livestock preparedness plan, 10–11 September 2026","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"level":"Public finance","institutions":"National Treasury and county treasuries","role":"Connect risk information to contingency financing, budget decisions, expenditure controls and reporting.","basis":"Kenya Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2026–2030","href":"https://www.treasury.go.ke/sites/default/files/Latest%20updates/Kenya%20Disaster%20Risk%20Financing%20Strategy%202026%20-2030.pdf"},{"level":"County implementation","institutions":"County governments, county disaster structures and local sector departments","role":"Publish local risk maps and response strategies, then convert instructions and resources into dated health, water, roads, livestock, evacuation and service-continuity action.","basis":"Constitution, Fourth Schedule; national all-county preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"}],"response":[{"date":"6 October","action":"Final Contingent Emergency Response Project manual published, defining activation, procurement, budgeting, funds flow and reporting for eligible crises","actor":"National Treasury · Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development CERP implementation unit · National Drought Management Authority · sector institutions · World Bank","stage":"Enabling finance framework; activation and release open","status":"Verified","href":"https://knowledgeweb.ndma.go.ke/Public/Resources/ResourceDetails.aspx?doc=cba3c230-29a1-4a25-9c7f-b91faadb70d8"},{"date":"30 September","action":"October bulletin issued with earlier onset guidance","actor":"Kenya Meteorological Service Authority","stage":"Evidence production","status":"Verified","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/5166/Monthly_weather_Forecast_for_October_2026.pdf"},{"date":"14 September; verified 2 October","action":"Masalale–Kilkey flood-control tender advertised in Eldas, Wajir","actor":"Northern Water Works Development Agency","stage":"Procurement; award open","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.nwwda.go.ke/index.php/news-events/tenders/123-tenders-14th-september-2026-flood-control-and-restoration-project"},{"date":"30 September requirement; works dated 8 October and published 9 October","action":"KSh152 million preparedness requirement published; later county account reports river and road works under way through the Emergency Fund","actor":"Makueni County Government","stage":"Reported execution; funding route named; transaction trail and completion open","status":"Verified","href":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%B8%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BB%F0%9D%97%B6-%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%98%80-%F0%9D%97%A8%F0%9D%97%BD-%F0%9D%97%98%F0%9D%97%B9/"},{"date":"Reported 24 September","action":"Senate committee directed a Malindi sanitation response and resolved to call for the Governor’s roadmap, budget commitments and timetable","actor":"Senate Standing Committee on Devolution and Intergovernmental Relations · Kilifi County Executive","stage":"Oversight direction; delivery open","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.parliament.go.ke/node/26438"},{"date":"22–23 September","action":"Forecast-to-Farmer proof of concept launched for authorised four-week forecasts to be translated into agricultural advice during the short rains","actor":"Kenya Meteorological Department · Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation · participating advisory organisations","stage":"National climate-service commitment","status":"Verified","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/publications/kenya-launches-forecast-to-farmer-pilot-to-bring-improved-weather-forecasts-to-farmers-at-scale/"},{"date":"18 August","action":"Regional October–December outlook and technical statement published","actor":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development","stage":"Evidence production","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.icpac.net/documents/1118/GHACOF74_Final_Technical_Statement.pdf"},{"date":"31 August","action":"Kenya October–December seasonal outlook published","actor":"Kenya Meteorological Department","stage":"Evidence production","status":"Verified","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/4790/OND_2026__Seasonal_Forecast.pdf"},{"date":"1 September","action":"Seven national preparedness measures reported under the national contingency approach","actor":"Ministry of Interior · National Disaster Operations Centre · national and county partners","stage":"National direction","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-01-state-unveils-7-measures-to-prepare-for-el-nino"},{"date":"7 September","action":"County plan, hotspots and evacuation centres reported; response-partner supplies and equipment positioned","actor":"Garissa County structures · National Drought Management Authority · Kenya Red Cross","stage":"Local planning and mobilisation","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/north-eastern/2026-09-07-garissa-steps-up-el-nino-preparedness-as-heavy-rains-loom"},{"date":"7 September baseline; 2 October notice verified 8 October","action":"El Niño preparedness-materials procurement documented for community health promoters; 2 October notice specifies KSh45 million estimate and 12 October bid deadline","actor":"Kisii County","stage":"Procurement","status":"Verified","href":"https://kisii.go.ke/download/tender-notice-in-the-department-of-medical-services-public-health-sanitation/"},{"date":"8 September","action":"Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan activation confirmed","actor":"Ministry of Health · Kenya National Public Health Institute · county health authorities · partners","stage":"Sectoral commitment","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding"},{"date":"8 September","action":"Multi-Hazard Contingency Plan refinement and county risk-zone validation documented","actor":"Siaya County","stage":"Preparedness planning","status":"Verified","href":"https://siaya.go.ke/siaya/county-government-of-siaya-strengthens-disaster-preparedness-ahead-of-projected-october-december-el-nino-rains/"},{"date":"10 September","action":"All 47 counties directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare response strategies","actor":"National government · county governments · National Government Administration Officers","stage":"National-to-county trigger","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"},{"date":"10 September","action":"KSh2.1 billion livestock preparedness and anticipatory-action plan launched for 24 counties","actor":"Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development · county livestock functions","stage":"Reported sector commitment","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"date":"11 September baseline; Machakos execution reported 11 October; Kiambu execution reported 12 October","action":"County-by-county reporting documents works, stocks, machinery, evacuation preparation, committees and infrastructure gaps; Machakos later reports rescue training and multi-agency activation, while Kiambu reports targeted drainage and sewer works at named locations","actor":"Multiple county and national actors · Machakos County and Kenya Red Cross · Kiambu county, water and roads institutions","stage":"Local readiness and reported execution","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/kiambu-intensifies-flood-prevention-works-in-kiamumbi-township-and-thindigua/"},{"date":"12 September directive; execution reported 10 October","action":"Drain clearing and box-culvert work reported under way; 300 county and national officers reported trained in emergency response","actor":"Mombasa County","stage":"Reported local execution and readiness training","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/mombasa-braces-for-el-nino-induced-rains/"},{"date":"10 October","action":"RANGE Crisis Modifier launched for drainage, rangeland, water, livestock-health, cash-for-work and offtake interventions","actor":"Marsabit County Government · Frontier Counties Development Council · Mercy Corps · programme partners","stage":"Local anticipatory-action mechanism; finance and delivery trail open","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/marsabit-launches-early-action-plan-ahead-of-forecast-el-nino-rains/"},{"date":"8 October; admitted 11 October","action":"KSh75 million preparedness set-aside reported and Ol Kalou clean-up launched","actor":"Nyandarua County Government","stage":"Reported allocation and initial activity; release and expenditure open","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/nyandarua-sets-a-side-sh75-million-for-el-nino-preparedness/"},{"date":"15 September","action":"All-county health preparedness advisory issued with operational measures for emergency coordination, facilities, stocks, surveillance, water safety, referrals and continuity of care","actor":"Ministry of Health · county health authorities · public-health institutions and partners","stage":"National health direction","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/ministry-of-health-activates-el-nino-preparedness-ahead-of-october-rains/"},{"date":"17 September","action":"High-Level Call to Action adopted, committing member states to activate contingency plans, pre-position supplies, strengthen surveillance and link anticipatory finance to agreed triggers","actor":"Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Climate Prediction and Applications Centre · participating governments and partners","stage":"Regional commitment","status":"Verified","href":"https://igad.int/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/IGAD-High-Level-Call-to-Action-on-El-Nino-Preparedness-Anticipatory-Action-and-Resilience.pdf"},{"date":"Open","action":"Regional Preparedness and Early Action Technical Annex with country priorities, responsibilities and timelines","actor":"Intergovernmental Authority on Development · member states","stage":"Regional implementation detail","status":"Open evidence"},{"date":"Open","action":"Published county strategies, national sector-plan documents and disaggregated assignments","actor":"National ministries · county governments","stage":"Commitment","status":"Open evidence"},{"date":"Open","action":"Budget releases, procurement awards, work orders and completed delivery records","actor":"National and county finance and implementing authorities","stage":"Finance and execution","status":"Open evidence"}],"finance":[{"label":"RANGE Crisis Modifier","finding":"The 10 October government report first describes a four per cent crisis-modifier set-aside within a €15 million programme, which would imply €600,000, but later attributes €15 million to current anticipatory action. Because the account is internally inconsistent, no crisis-modifier amount is treated as verified. Trigger, release, procurement, provider payment and county-level delivery remain open.","status":"Mechanism launched; amount and transaction trail open","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/marsabit-launches-early-action-plan-ahead-of-forecast-el-nino-rains/"},{"label":"Nyandarua preparedness set-aside","finding":"The county executive reports KSh75 million set aside for El Niño preparedness. The account does not supply the appropriation or contingency authority, release, procurement, payment or expenditure record. Separate environmental allocations are not attributed to this preparedness amount.","status":"Reported allocation; release and expenditure open","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/nyandarua-sets-a-side-sh75-million-for-el-nino-preparedness/"},{"label":"Wajir flood-control procurement","finding":"The national agency reports receiving funds but the amount and release trail are not evidenced here. KSh3 million is tender security, not an allocation or contract price. Award, payment and completion remain open.","status":"Verified procurement; finance open","href":"https://www.nwwda.go.ke/index.php/news-events/tenders/123-tenders-14th-september-2026-flood-control-and-restoration-project"},{"label":"Makueni Emergency Fund works","finding":"The county reports named river and road works being implemented through its Emergency Fund. This verifies a financing route and reported execution, not the fund appropriation, release, contract value, payment or completed works. The earlier KSh152 million figure remains a projected preparedness requirement.","status":"Funding route and reported execution verified; transaction trail open","href":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%B8%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BB%F0%9D%97%B6-%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%98%80-%F0%9D%97%A8%F0%9D%97%BD-%F0%9D%97%98%F0%9D%97%B9/"},{"label":"Malindi flood mitigation","finding":"The municipality reported redirecting capital projects. No approved revision, release, award or payment is evidenced by that statement.","status":"Reported reallocation; finance open","href":"https://www.parliament.go.ke/node/26438"},{"label":"Forecast-to-Farmer pilot","finding":"The KMD release identifies a commitment charter, technical partners and supporting organisations, but does not publish a Kenyan appropriation, procurement award, contract value or disbursement for the proof of concept. Existing partner programmes and their reach are not treated as new finance or delivery under this pilot.","status":"Verified commitment; finance open","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/publications/kenya-launches-forecast-to-farmer-pilot-to-bring-improved-weather-forecasts-to-farmers-at-scale/"},{"label":"Disaster-risk financing policy","finding":"Kenya’s Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2026–2030 provides for different financing instruments at different levels of risk and for finance to be arranged in advance. It provides context; it does not show that money has been released for this forecast.","status":"Mapped","href":"https://www.treasury.go.ke/sites/default/files/Latest%20updates/Kenya%20Disaster%20Risk%20Financing%20Strategy%202026%20-2030.pdf"},{"label":"Contingent Emergency Response Project","finding":"The final manual and the May omnibus agreement define a route for repurposing up to 10 per cent of eligible undisbursed World Bank portfolio balances in a World Bank financial year. The manual states that no financing is committed at approval. The World Bank lists project P518719 in appraisal, and the file contains no eligible-emergency determination, Activation Request, Crisis Response Plan, no-objection, named host-operation amount, ring-fenced budget or disbursement for the short rains.","status":"Verified enabling framework; approval, activation and release open","href":"https://knowledgeweb.ndma.go.ke/Public/Resources/ResourceDetails.aspx?doc=cba3c230-29a1-4a25-9c7f-b91faadb70d8"},{"label":"National livestock plan","finding":"A KSh2.1 billion preparedness and anticipatory-action plan is reported for 24 counties. The official plan, budget authority, financing source, county shares, release status and implementation schedule were not publicly available for this assessment.","status":"Reported commitment","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"label":"County allocations","finding":"Reports identify KSh20 million in Mombasa, KSh44.2 million in Migori, KSh27.7 million in Murang’a, KSh29 million in Meru, KSh20 million in Nyeri and KSh75 million in Nyandarua. Allocation is not treated as release, expenditure or delivery.","status":"Reported allocations","href":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge"},{"label":"Procurement","finding":"Kisii’s official tender documents specify a KSh45 million estimate and 12 October bid deadline. The estimate does not establish an appropriation or release. Award, contract value, payment, receipt and onward distribution remain open.","status":"Procurement verified; finance and delivery open","href":"https://kisii.go.ke/download/tender-notice-in-the-department-of-medical-services-public-health-sanitation/"},{"label":"Local execution","finding":"County and partner sources now report works, stocks, equipment, farm inputs, assessments, training or machinery under way in 18 counties. Kiambu moves from planning into reported execution at this review; Marsabit retains a newly launched anticipatory-action mechanism at readiness stage until delivery is evidenced. Coverage, quantities, expenditure, deployment, completion and independent verification remain incomplete.","status":"Reported","href":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001#county-register"}],"versions":[{"version":"1.16","date":"13 October 2026","change":"Kiambu moves from coordinated readiness to reported drainage execution at named locations. Work authority, finance, inspection and completion evidence remain open.","availability":"Current record","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001"},{"version":"1.15","date":"12 October 2026","change":"Machakos moves from planning to reported execution after joint water-rescue training, drainage clearing, public sensitisation and multi-agency activation. Finance, deployment and completion evidence remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.15"},{"version":"1.14","date":"11 October 2026","change":"Mombasa reports drainage execution and emergency training; Marsabit launches a crisis modifier; Nyandarua reports a preparedness allocation and clean-up. Finance and completion evidence remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.14"},{"version":"1.13","date":"10 October 2026","change":"Makueni reports named river and road works under way through its Emergency Fund. The funding route and local execution are verified; appropriation, release, contracting, payment and completion remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.13"},{"version":"1.12","date":"8 October 2026","change":"Kisii’s official health procurement documents establish a KSh45 million estimate, 12 October bid deadline and conditional delivery window. The existing procurement entry is enriched; award, finance and delivery remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.12"},{"version":"1.11","date":"7 October 2026","change":"Kenya’s contingent emergency-finance route is now verified from primary documents. The framework defines activation, procurement and funds flow, but no project approval, activation, allocation or disbursement for the short rains is evidenced.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.11"},{"version":"1.10","date":"2 October 2026","change":"Earlier onset guidance shortens local readiness windows. Wajir national-agency procurement and Makueni’s KSh152 million requirement are added, with awards, releases and completion still open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.10"},{"version":"1.9","date":"1 October 2026","change":"Senate oversight adds a specific sewerage and drainage decision for Malindi. The directive is verified; the financial and execution claims remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.9"},{"version":"1.8","date":"26 September 2026","change":"KMD’s Forecast-to-Farmer pilot was verified as a national agricultural climate-service commitment for the short rains. It establishes an authorised forecast-to-advice pathway and named institutional roles, while farmer receipt, pilot geography, public finance and outcomes remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.8"},{"version":"1.7","date":"18 September 2026","change":"The IGAD High-Level Call to Action was verified as an adopted regional commitment. It adds plan activation, pre-positioning, surveillance, trigger-linked finance and regional reporting duties, while the country-level Technical Annex and evidence of Kenyan financing and delivery remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.7"},{"version":"1.6","date":"17 September 2026","change":"The Ministry of Health’s all-county operating advisory, the 15–22 September regional forecast and the close of the ministerial decision window were assessed. The health trigger is stronger, while county execution, finance and the regional forum outputs remain open.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.6"},{"version":"1.5","date":"12 September 2026","change":"County-level evidence was extended to all 47 counties, distinguishing reported execution and procurement from planning, national programme announcements and counties for which no recent local record was located.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.5"},{"version":"1.4","date":"12 September 2026","change":"The 15–17 September regional ministerial forum was identified as the next decision point; its proposed outputs remained prospective.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.4"},{"version":"1.3","date":"11 September 2026","change":"National health contingency planning and Mandera’s preparedness process were confirmed. Guidance from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the reported rapid-finance discussions were also assessed.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.3"},{"version":"1.2","date":"11 September 2026","change":"Primary legal and policy sources clarified institutional responsibility and the immediate operational horizon.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.2"},{"version":"1.1","date":"10 September 2026","change":"The immediate weekly forecast was distinguished from the seasonal outlook, and the six stages of the public decision were set out separately.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.1"},{"version":"1.0","date":"9 September 2026","change":"The record opened with the national and regional October–December seasonal outlooks.","availability":"Change note only; a complete snapshot was not retained","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions#revision-1-0"}],"licenceNote":"Original editorial analysis may be cited with attribution. Source documents remain subject to their issuing institutions’ terms."}