{"schemaVersion":"1.0","schema":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/schema","canonical":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001","formats":{"html":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001","pdf":"https://ahmednadhir.com/records/signal-to-state-ke-ond-2026-001-revision-1-5-2026-09-12.pdf","json":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/ke-ond-2026-001","csv":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/ke-ond-2026-001?format=csv"},"record":{"id":"KE-OND-2026-001","slug":"ke-ond-2026-001","title":"Kenya’s October–December 2026 rains: the state of public preparedness","shortTitle":"Kenya · October–December 2026 short rains","jurisdiction":"Kenya","evidenceRegion":"Kenya, read with relevant Greater Horn guidance","opened":"9 September 2026","openedIso":"2026-09-09","reviewed":"12 September 2026","reviewedIso":"2026-09-12","revision":"1.5","state":"Decision window open","territory":"kenya","hazard":"seasonal-rainfall","systems":["public-health","water","livestock","infrastructure","disaster-preparedness"],"activeSignal":"Decision-maker guidance from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced rainfall during October–December. Kenya’s national outlook favours wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the country. County reports describe a markedly uneven state of preparation, ranging from drainage works and pre-positioned supplies to planning processes and unverified announcements.","scopeNote":"The assessment concerns decisions within Kenya. Greater Horn forecasts are used where they bear directly upon the Kenyan outlook or a cross-border consequence."},"currentAssessment":{"latestChange":{"date":"12 September 2026","title":"Public evidence shows uneven stages of preparedness across the counties.","detail":"Between 17 August and 12 September, public records described measures under execution in 13 counties, procurement in Kisii and directives or preparedness planning in 20 counties. Five counties appeared only in national programme announcements. No county-specific record was found for seven counties, while reporting from Bungoma disclosed an implementation gap. Mombasa issued a construction-site drainage directive and announced a 3,000-person clearance deployment. Garissa mapped hotspots and evacuation centres, and the Kenya Red Cross reported that supplies and response equipment had been positioned."},"nextDecision":{"title":"Every county now needs a published plan naming the responsible office, funded measure, delivery date and means of verification.","timing":"County implementation window: before October onset; regional ministerial forum: 15–17 September 2026.","detail":"Before the October rains, county and national authorities need to publish the records behind reported works, stocks, evacuation centres and deployments. The livestock plan and forthcoming regional decisions also require named institutions, county allocations and delivery timetables."},"responsibility":{"title":"The immediate responsibility rests with county delivery systems, supported by national coordination and sector institutions.","detail":"The National Disaster Operations Centre, national sector ministries, county governments and National Government Administration Officers hold distinct responsibilities. County health, water, roads, livestock and disaster services now carry the practical work of preparedness."},"verifiedAction":{"title":"Thirteen counties report measures under execution, and Kisii has opened procurement.","detail":"The reported measures include drainage and mitigation works, pre-positioned supplies, received farm inputs, bridge assessments and deployed machinery. The sources establish activity at named stages and locations. County-wide completion, effectiveness and comparable readiness across Kenya remain unconfirmed."},"openEvidence":{"title":"Plans, finance, contracts and completion records remain incomplete.","detail":"The principal gaps concern published county plans and risk maps, official sector plans and county allocations, budget releases, procurement awards, dated completion or stock records, and the forthcoming ministerial Call to Action and technical report."}},"decisionTrace":[{"code":"T0","stage":"Signal","question":"What did the authoritative forecasts say, for which places and period?","finding":"For October–December 2026, regional and national outlooks identify an enhanced-rainfall risk; the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood.","status":"Verified","href":"#known"},{"code":"T1","stage":"Trigger","question":"What official action followed the forecasts?","finding":"The health plan is active, the national government has directed all 47 counties to prepare response strategies, and a livestock plan has been announced for 24 counties.","status":"Verified","href":"#trigger"},{"code":"T2","stage":"Authority","question":"Which institutions are responsible?","finding":"Responsibility lies with national coordination bodies, sector institutions and county governments, although many county records do not name the lead officer or delivery timetable.","status":"Mapped","href":"#authority"},{"code":"T3","stage":"Commitment","question":"What funding, instructions or procurement have been announced?","finding":"A livestock plan valued at 2.1 billion Kenyan shillings (KSh) and several county allocations are reported; Kisii has initiated procurement. Release, award and expenditure evidence remains incomplete.","status":"Reported","href":"#commitment"},{"code":"T4","stage":"Execution","question":"What implementation has been reported, and what remains unverified?","finding":"Reports from 13 counties describe measures under execution, while Kisii has begun procurement. Much of the evidence comes from official statements or secondary reporting, and the extent of completion remains unclear.","status":"Reported","href":"#execution"},{"code":"T5","stage":"Outcome","question":"Can the effects on people and public services be assessed yet?","finding":"Not yet. Assessing public outcomes must await the October–December season and the evidence it produces.","status":"Not assessable at this stage","href":"#outcome"}],"materialChanges":[{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"National review of county preparedness","changed":"County-level evidence published between 17 August and 12 September presents markedly different stages of preparedness across Kenya: reported execution in 13 counties, procurement in Kisii, directives or planning in 20 counties, and substantial gaps elsewhere.","source":"Climate Preparedness Record · 47-county evidence register","sourceHref":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001#county-register","decision":"County plans need to identify the responsible office, funded measure, procurement or work instruction, delivery date and public evidence of completion before the October rains.","assessment":"Preparedness activity is more extensive than earlier evidence showed, although its depth varies sharply. Five counties appear only in national programme announcements, seven have no recent county-specific public record, and one has a reported implementation gap.","effect":"County preparations are uneven"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Mombasa County · urban drainage and flood prevention","changed":"From 14 September, Mombasa will restrict roadside construction mixing that obstructs drainage. The Governor also announced a phased deployment of 3,000 young people to clear drains, culverts and waterways after flooding disrupted access in several neighbourhoods.","source":"Kenyans.co.ke · Mombasa flood-prevention directive","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/127003-mombasa-bans-site-mixing-ballast-sand-and-cement-mitigate-flooding","decision":"Enforcement records, deployment rosters, named work sites and completion reports will determine whether the measures reduce obstruction before heavier rainfall.","assessment":"The directive and deployment announcement constitute a formal county response. Evidence of mobilisation, expenditure and completed clearance remains unavailable.","effect":"Mombasa response specified"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Kenya · all-county readiness and livestock preparedness","changed":"The national government directed all 47 counties to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare response strategies. A separate KSh2.1 billion livestock preparedness plan was reported for 24 counties.","source":"Kenya News Agency · all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","decision":"County strategies, the official livestock plan, county allocations, releases and delivery schedules are required to establish how the national direction will be carried out.","assessment":"The national instruction and reported sector commitment establish a preparedness mandate. County compliance, sector allocations and the movement of funds remain unclear.","effect":"National preparedness mandate established"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Garissa County · flood readiness and emergency response","changed":"Garissa reported a preparedness plan, mapped hotspots and evacuation centres, and established weekly coordination. The Kenya Red Cross reported that first-line responders and emergency supplies had been positioned, with boats and vehicles available or on standby.","source":"The Star · Garissa preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/north-eastern/2026-09-07-garissa-steps-up-el-nino-preparedness-as-heavy-rains-loom","decision":"The county plan, resource inventory, site-level coverage and financing are needed to establish the scale and durability of the reported preparations.","assessment":"Garissa has identifiable planning and reported mobilisation. Quantities, county financing and independent confirmation of delivery remain unavailable.","effect":"Garissa preparedness evidence strengthened"},{"date":"12 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-12","context":"Greater Horn · regional preparedness and anticipatory finance","changed":"The Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development scheduled a High-Level Ministerial Forum on El Niño preparedness for 15–17 September. The intended outputs are a ministerial call to action and a regional preparedness and early-action technical report.","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · High-Level Ministerial Forum","sourceHref":"https://www.icpac.net/events/high-level-ministerial-forum-on-el-ni%C3%B1o-preparedness-in-the-horn-of-africa/","decision":"The forum is expected to identify preparedness measures, responsible institutions, anticipatory-finance arrangements and delivery deadlines before the October–December season.","assessment":"The regional decision date and convening responsibility are confirmed. Its proposed outputs will require assessment after publication.","effect":"Regional decision date confirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Kenya health sector · El Niño contingency planning","changed":"The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that the Ministry of Health had activated a Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan covering surveillance, laboratory readiness, water and sanitation, risk communication and continuity of essential services.","source":"WHO Kenya · health-system preparedness","sourceHref":"https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding","decision":"The plan now requires county assignments, responsible institutions, resources and an implementation timetable before the October–December rains.","assessment":"National health preparedness has moved into an active planning phase. The plan document, county assignments, finance, procurement and delivery records remain unavailable.","effect":"Health contingency planning confirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Mandera County · scenario planning and early action","changed":"Mandera County reported that it was developing a participatory scenario plan with the World Food Programme (WFP) and other partners to define likely scenarios and early actions.","source":"County Government of Mandera · preparedness notice","sourceHref":"https://mandera.go.ke/mandera-county-develops-participatory-scenario-plan-for-el-nino-preparedness/","decision":"The completed plan needs to identify multi-sector priorities, selected early actions, responsible institutions and the resources required for implementation.","assessment":"A county preparedness process is confirmed. The notice provides no completed plan, financing, procurement or field-delivery evidence.","effect":"Mandera planning confirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"North-eastern Kenya · sector guidance for enhanced rainfall","changed":"The Summary for Decision Makers from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced rainfall and provides sector guidance for agriculture, health, water, livestock, infrastructure and security.","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Summary for Decision Makers","sourceHref":"https://www.icpac.net/publications/summary-for-decision-makers-october-to-december-2026-season/","decision":"National and county institutions need to prioritise preparedness across health, water, livestock, agriculture, infrastructure and security in the areas facing the highest rainfall probability.","assessment":"The guidance strengthens the geographic and sector basis for preparedness while leaving the broader seasonal outlook unchanged.","effect":"North-eastern risk clarified"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Kenya · prospective disaster-risk finance","changed":"Reuters reported that Kenya and the World Bank were finalising a rapid-finance framework that could cover an eligible El Niño emergency.","source":"Reuters · reported rapid-finance process","sourceHref":"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenya-get-some-400-mln-emergency-world-bank-funds-within-six-weeks-source-says-2026-09-10/","decision":"A signed instrument, eligibility decision and public allocation are required before the framework can be treated as available finance for preparedness or response.","assessment":"The report identifies a prospective financing route. No primary project document, signed instrument, appropriation, amount or disbursement has been published.","effect":"Financing route remains unconfirmed"},{"date":"11 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-11","context":"Kenya · legal mandate and institutional responsibility","changed":"The Meteorology Act, National Drought Management Authority Act, Constitution and Disaster Risk Financing Strategy identify the principal mandates for forecasting, drought readiness, county functions and risk finance.","source":"Meteorology Act, 2026","sourceHref":"https://new.kenyalaw.org/akn/ke/act/2026/7","decision":"Public institutions need to identify who owns forecast services, contingency processes, local delivery and the passage from risk information to finance.","assessment":"Institutional responsibility and the legal basis for financing can now be stated more precisely. The meteorological assessment is unchanged.","effect":"Institutional responsibility clarified"},{"date":"10 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-10","context":"Greater Horn · near-term heat and operational conditions","changed":"The forecast for 8–15 September from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development provides short-term information for decisions about heat exposure, water demand, outdoor work and livestock care.","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · weekly forecast","sourceHref":"https://www.icpac.net/weekly-forecast/08-15-september-2026/?region=1&resource_type=14","decision":"Health, water, labour and livestock authorities need to account for near-term heat exposure, water demand, outdoor work and animal care.","assessment":"The weekly forecast informs immediate operating conditions while leaving the October–December assessment unchanged.","effect":"Immediate forecast horizon included"},{"date":"9 September 2026","dateIso":"2026-09-09","context":"Kenya and the Greater Horn · October–December seasonal outlook","changed":"Regional and Kenyan seasonal outlooks established an October–December preparedness window for rainfall, flooding, drainage, pasture, water safety and continuity of essential services.","source":"Kenya Meteorological Department · October–December 2026 outlook","sourceHref":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/4790/OND_2026__Seasonal_Forecast.pdf","decision":"National and county authorities need to prepare for flooding, drainage pressure, pasture and water-safety risks, and disruption to essential services.","assessment":"The seasonal signal was sufficiently clear to warrant continuing scrutiny of public preparedness and delivery.","effect":"Seasonal outlook established"}],"evidence":[{"horizon":"Regional decision window","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · High-Level Ministerial Forum","published":"Event notice accessed 12 September 2026","validFor":"15–17 September 2026","finding":"The Intergovernmental Authority on Development and its Climate Prediction and Applications Centre will convene ministers, governments, experts and partners to assess preparedness, identify priority actions, advance anticipatory finance and consider a regional call to action and technical report. The notice establishes the forum, not its future outputs.","status":"Decision window","href":"https://www.icpac.net/events/high-level-ministerial-forum-on-el-ni%C3%B1o-preparedness-in-the-horn-of-africa/"},{"horizon":"Regional seasonal","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre · 74th Greater Horn Climate Outlook Forum technical statement","published":"Issued 18 August 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026","finding":"The 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum favours a wetter-than-normal season across much of the equatorial and southern Greater Horn, including Kenya, alongside flood and water-management risks.","status":"Established forecast","href":"https://www.icpac.net/documents/1118/GHACOF74_Final_Technical_Statement.pdf"},{"horizon":"Regional decision guidance","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Summary for Decision Makers","published":"Published 10 September 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026","finding":"The centre assigns a 90 per cent chance of enhanced rainfall to north-eastern Kenya and supplies sector guidance spanning agriculture, disaster risk management, health, livestock, conflict and peace, water, energy and the blue economy.","status":"Decision guidance","href":"https://www.icpac.net/publications/summary-for-decision-makers-october-to-december-2026-season/"},{"horizon":"National seasonal","source":"Kenya Meteorological Department · October–December 2026 outlook","published":"Issued 31 August 2026","validFor":"October–December 2026","finding":"Above-average rainfall is expected across most counties. Heavy rainfall events remain possible, while the outlook also identifies opportunities for water recharge, pasture and production.","status":"Established forecast","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/4790/OND_2026__Seasonal_Forecast.pdf"},{"horizon":"National preparedness","source":"National government · all-county preparedness direction","published":"Reported 10 September 2026","validFor":"Preparation before the 2026/27 El Niño rainfall period","finding":"All 47 counties were directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and develop local response strategies. The direction establishes a national-to-county trigger; it does not prove that every county has complied.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"},{"horizon":"National health preparedness","source":"Ministry of Health · Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan","published":"Activation confirmed 8 September 2026","validFor":"2026/27 El Niño health risks","finding":"The plan brings national and county health actors together around surveillance, laboratories, water and sanitation, risk communication and continuity of essential services. The complete plan, county assignments, budgets and delivery schedule were not publicly available for this assessment.","status":"Preparedness direction","href":"https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding"},{"horizon":"National livestock preparedness","source":"National Livestock Sector El Niño Preparedness and Anticipatory Action Plan","published":"Launch reported 10–11 September 2026","validFor":"Initial implementation in 24 named counties","finding":"A KSh2.1 billion plan was announced for livestock health, feed, water, market and awareness measures in 24 counties. The official plan document, financing source, county shares, release status and delivery schedule were not publicly available for this assessment.","status":"Sector plan reported","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"horizon":"Regional weekly","source":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · weekly forecast","published":"Published for the week beginning 8 September","validFor":"8–15 September 2026","finding":"Light rainfall is expected in central-western and coastal Kenya. Parts of eastern Kenya are within the forecast’s extreme-caution heat-stress area.","status":"Current forecast","href":"https://www.icpac.net/weekly-forecast/08-15-september-2026/?region=1&resource_type=14"},{"horizon":"National daily","source":"Kenya Meteorological Department · daily forecast","published":"Issued 11 September 2026","validFor":"12 September 2026","finding":"The national daily bulletin provides the shortest forecast period in this assessment. It describes immediate conditions and does not change the seasonal conclusion.","status":"Current bulletin","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/4940/Daily_Weather_Forecast_Valid_12th_September_2026.pdf"}],"reach":[{"horizon":"National preparedness · before onset","geography":"All 47 counties","finding":"Every county has been directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare a response strategy. The county register below shows what public evidence of action was found after that direction.","systems":"Disaster coordination · evacuation · public communication · service continuity"},{"horizon":"Seasonal · October–December","geography":"North-eastern Kenya, arid and semi-arid counties, and pastoral systems","finding":"Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit have a later expected onset and relatively short seasonal window. The livestock plan adds national programme coverage across 24 counties, but local execution remains uneven.","systems":"Water · livestock · health · access roads · humanitarian logistics"},{"horizon":"Seasonal · October–December","geography":"Towns, lake and river basins, slopes and coastal settlements","finding":"Reported action concentrates on drainage, evacuation, public health, farm inputs and response coordination. The presence of one measure does not establish readiness across a whole county or system.","systems":"Drainage · sanitation · agriculture · transport · settlements · trade"}],"jurisdictionEvidence":[{"jurisdiction":"Baringo","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"A multi-agency team was reported to be assessing readiness around Lakes Baringo and Bogoria; the available report does not identify completed protective works.","source":"Citizen Digital · high-risk county preparations","sourceHref":"https://citizen.digital/article/govt-identifies-18-high-risk-counties-ahead-of-el-nino-rains-n389875","published":"9 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report citing public authorities","openEvidence":"Publish named sites, assigned works, responsible officers and completion evidence.","finance":"The county is named in the KSh2.1 billion livestock plan, but no public record of its allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Bomet","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Flood hotspots were reported mapped in Chepalungu, Sotik and lower Bomet East, with public sensitisation and health-risk planning under way.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, mapped sites, health measures, owners and implementation dates.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Bungoma","status":"Implementation gap reported","finding":"Reporting on 10 September documented rain damage to homes and businesses and resident concern about preparedness, without identifying a fresh county measure in the review window.","source":"The Standard · Bungoma rain damage report","sourceHref":"https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/environment-climate/article/2001557508/heavy-rains-destroy-houses-and-business-premises-in-bungoma","published":"10 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Mainstream news report","openEvidence":"Publish the county response plan, active mitigation work, emergency contacts and affected-site assessment.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Busia","status":"Execution reported","finding":"A current report documented secondary dykes along River Nzoia and the return of farming on previously flooded land in Budalang’i, while noting that some areas remain exposed.","source":"Citizen Digital · Budalang’i preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://citizen.digital/article/el-nino-preparedness-in-budalangi-as-banks-built-along-river-nzoia-n388865","published":"23 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report; works began before the stated review period","openEvidence":"Publish current dyke condition, uncovered settlements, maintenance work and evacuation arrangements.","finance":"The available source does not establish the funding or current maintenance expenditure for the dyke works."},{"jurisdiction":"Elgeyo-Marakwet","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county states that it started receiving planting and top-dressing fertiliser for short-season crops ahead of the El Niño rainfall period.","source":"County Government of Elgeyo-Marakwet · fertiliser receipt","sourceHref":"https://elgeyomarakwet.go.ke/elgeyo-marakwet-receives-subsidized-fertilizer-ahead-of-el-nino/","published":"31 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish quantities received, distribution sites, beneficiary coverage and delivery records.","finance":"The source and value of the subsidy, and expenditure evidence, are not published in the record."},{"jurisdiction":"Embu","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Authorities were reported to have established a disaster preparedness committee to coordinate county preparations.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the committee mandate, county plan, risk map, assigned actions and meeting decisions.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Garissa","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county preparedness plan, hotspots and evacuation centres were reported mapped. Kenya Red Cross reported trained first-line responders, positioned supplies and equipment, and standby boats and vehicles.","source":"The Star · Garissa preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/north-eastern/2026-09-07-garissa-steps-up-el-nino-preparedness-as-heavy-rains-loom","published":"7 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named official and response-partner statements","openEvidence":"Publish the plan, resource inventory, quantities, exact locations, county responsibilities and replenishment schedule.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of its budget, release or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Homa Bay","status":"National programme only","finding":"The county is named in national health and livestock preparedness coverage, but no fresh county-specific implementation record was located in the review window.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish the current county contingency plan, assignments, flood works, stocks and delivery dates.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the national programmes was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Isiolo","status":"National programme only","finding":"The national livestock plan was launched in Isiolo and names the county for initial implementation, but no fresh county-owned action record was located.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish Isiolo’s assigned measures, county owner, target locations and delivery schedule.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kajiado","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"A public preparedness process was reported around flood prevention, local risk identification and community action, with residents urged to act before the rains.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Kajiado preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/kajiado-residents-step-up-plans-to-prevent-el-nino-flooding/","published":"28 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report","openEvidence":"Publish the agreed county actions, responsible departments, works and evidence of completion.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kakamega","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county published an official advisory for enhanced October–December rainfall. The advisory establishes communication, not completed preparedness work.","source":"County Government of Kakamega · public advisory","sourceHref":"https://kakamega.go.ke/public-advisory-notice-prepare-for-enhanced-el-nino-rains-october-december-2026/","published":"8 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the county response plan, high-risk locations, responsible units and dated mitigation work.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kericho","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Kipkelion East and West were reported mapped for mudslide risk, while municipal boards were clearing stormwater drains and issuing relocation advice.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish work locations, work orders, progress, completion records and shelter arrangements.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kiambu","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"County and national officials were reported to have activated coordination around hotspots, early warning, public awareness and emergency response; earlier reporting called on water companies to clear drainage.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Kiambu preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/kiambu-intensifies-el-nino-preparedness/","published":"10 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report","openEvidence":"Publish the risk map, drain-clearance sites, responsible utilities, work progress and evacuation arrangements.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kilifi","status":"Execution reported","finding":"County officials reported mapping and sensitisation, assembled food and non-food items, an established command centre and a coordinated contingency process.","source":"The Standard · Kilifi preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/coast/article/2001557494/over-80000-kilifi-families-face-possible-displacement-as-el-nino-rains-loom","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named county and response-partner statements","openEvidence":"Publish the contingency plan, stock quantities and locations, evacuation sites, owners and readiness checks.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kirinyaga","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including local risks and assigned measures.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kisii","status":"Procurement initiated","finding":"The county published a tender notice for the supply and delivery of El Niño preparedness materials for Community Health Promoters.","source":"County Government of Kisii · tender notice","sourceHref":"https://kisii.go.ke/tender-notice/","published":"7 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Official procurement record","openEvidence":"Publish the tender documents, evaluation outcome, award, contract value, delivery and distribution evidence.","finance":"Procurement is initiated; award, contract, payment and delivery are not established."},{"jurisdiction":"Kisumu","status":"Execution reported","finding":"About ten evacuation centres in Nyando were reported prepared and stocked with food, non-food items, medical supplies, mosquito nets and waterborne-disease medicines.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · Nyando preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named administrator statement in a news report","openEvidence":"Publish centre locations, stock inventories, custody records, access arrangements and the status of planned river and dyke work.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kitui","status":"National programme only","finding":"Kitui is named in the national livestock plan. Current farmer advice is public, but no fresh county-owned El Niño execution record was located in the review window.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, agricultural measures, target locations, owners and delivery evidence.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Kwale","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Authorities were reported to have identified flood-prone areas, worked with village elders on warnings and identified halls, churches and mosques for evacuation use.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, verified shelter list, accessibility, responsible officers and readiness checks.","finance":"The county is named in the national health plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Laikipia","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The governor reported that blocked drainage clearance had started, alongside identification of locations where residents might require assistance or relocation.","source":"People Daily · Laikipia preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://peopledaily.digital/news/el-nino-rains-govenor-irungu-warns-residents-to-flee-high-risk-areas/amp","published":"4 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Governor statement reported by mainstream media","openEvidence":"Publish cleared locations, work progress, evacuation sites, completion evidence and response ownership.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Lamu","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county reported a disaster preparedness workplan and convened a four-day multi-stakeholder training on early warning, anticipatory action and coordinated response.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Lamu disaster workplan","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/county-inaugurates-disaster-management-plan-for-october-el-nino-rains/","published":"9 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report citing county officials","openEvidence":"Publish the workplan, resource allocation, evacuation sites, owners and evidence that planned actions have started.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Machakos","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"A county-led multi-agency meeting assessed high-risk areas and enforcement of development controls, including flood risks in urban areas.","source":"Kitui Online · Machakos preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.kituionline.co.ke/machakos-steps-up-el-nino-preparedness-as-county-moves-to-protect-lives-and-infrastructure/","published":"27 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report citing county officials","openEvidence":"Publish the risk map, enforcement instructions, assigned works, responsible units and implementation evidence.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Makueni","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county proposed using satellite imagery, rainfall records and flood-risk data to prioritise road repairs, while directing completion of a water project before the rains.","source":"County Government of Makueni · extreme-weather response","sourceHref":"https://makueni.go.ke/2026/news/makueni-turns-to-technology-to-strengthen-extreme-weather-response-prioritize-road-repairs/","published":"18 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record; proposed implementation framework","openEvidence":"Publish the signed framework, prioritised road list, work orders, project completion and delivery dates.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Mandera","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county is developing a participatory scenario plan with the World Food Programme, county departments, the National Drought Management Authority and humanitarian partners to identify scenarios and early actions.","source":"County Government of Mandera · preparedness notice","sourceHref":"https://mandera.go.ke/mandera-county-develops-participatory-scenario-plan-for-el-nino-preparedness/","published":"1 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the completed plan, selected early actions, responsible institutions, triggers and delivery timetable.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Marsabit","status":"National programme only","finding":"Marsabit is named in the national livestock plan, but no fresh county-specific preparedness or execution record was located in the review window.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish the county contingency plan, local risks, assigned actions, resources and delivery evidence.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Meru","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Landslide and flood hotspots were reported identified. A KSh29 million emergency allocation was reported for 2026/27, while the same report said no current-year emergency relief allocation was available.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the hotspot map, response plan, current funding route, works and evidence of implementation.","finance":"KSh29 million is reported in the 2026/27 budget, but no public record of its release or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Migori","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county was reported to have allocated KSh44.2 million and purchased relief supplies including food and non-food items; residents later called for early mitigation in Nyatike.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Migori emergency preparedness","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/sh44-2-million-set-aside-in-migori-for-emergency-preparedness-and-response/","published":"17 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report","openEvidence":"Publish the budget line, stock inventory, storage, custody, distribution rules and flood-mitigation work.","finance":"KSh44.2 million and purchases are reported; release, payment and inventory records were not publicly available for this assessment."},{"jurisdiction":"Mombasa","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The governor issued a restriction on roadside construction mixing from 14 September and announced a phased 3,000-person deployment to clear drains, culverts and waterways after local flooding disrupted access.","source":"Kenyans.co.ke · Mombasa flood-prevention directive","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/127003-mombasa-bans-site-mixing-ballast-sand-and-cement-mitigate-flooding","published":"12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Governor statement reported by mainstream media","openEvidence":"Verify enforcement, recruitment, training, tools, deployment sites and completed clearance before heavier rainfall.","finance":"A KSh20 million emergency allocation is separately reported, but no public record of its release or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Murang’a","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Youth Service teams were reported deployed to clear drainage in major towns. The report also identified blocked sewer and feeder-road drainage gaps.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish deployment sites, work progress, completion records and action on the identified drainage gaps.","finance":"KSh27.7 million is reported for disaster management and social welfare, but no public record of its release or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nairobi","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Ongoing drainage and flood-mitigation works were reported across vulnerable areas under a multi-agency programme, with hotspot mapping and emergency coordination also active.","source":"Citizen Digital · Nairobi flood-preparedness programme","sourceHref":"https://citizen.digital/article/nairobi-county-accelerates-ksh2b-flood-preparedness-plan-ahead-of-expected-heavy-rains-n388764","published":"21 August 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report citing county programme information","openEvidence":"Publish the full site list, contracts, progress certificates, expenditure and completed-work verification.","finance":"A KSh2.4 billion programme and KSh2 billion drainage component are reported; release and expenditure are not established here."},{"jurisdiction":"Nakuru","status":"Execution reported","finding":"The county reported a multi-agency response, bridge structural assessments across 11 sub-counties and planned immediate dredging and culvert unblocking in Naivasha.","source":"Kenya News Agency · Nakuru response measures","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/nakuru-activates-response-measures-ahead-of-el-nino/","published":"9 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Government news report citing county officials","openEvidence":"Publish assessment findings, work orders, start and completion evidence, and high-risk settlement arrangements.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nandi","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including landslide and flood risks and assigned measures.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Narok","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"County preparedness around vulnerable communities, flood and landslide hotspots and critical infrastructure was reported; prior stormwater works and raised footpaths were cited in exposed areas.","source":"The Standard · Narok preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/rift-valley/article/2001556820/narok-lessons-from-past-floods-inform-readiness-for-rainy-season","published":"3 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Mainstream news report","openEvidence":"Publish the current plan, hotspot map, condition of previous works, response resources and delivery dates.","finance":"The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nyamira","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including local risks and assigned measures.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nyandarua","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, lake and drainage risks and assigned measures.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Nyeri","status":"Execution reported","finding":"KSh20 million was reported set aside; schools were identified for evacuation use, drainage improvements were reported in Mathira and Kieni, and each sub-county was said to have an ambulance.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the budget line and release, named centres, drainage-work progress, ambulance readiness and exercise records.","finance":"KSh20 million is reported, but no public record of its release, procurement or spending was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Samburu","status":"National programme only","finding":"Samburu is named in the national livestock plan, but no fresh county-specific preparedness or execution record was located in the review window.","source":"National livestock preparedness plan · reported county coverage","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"National programme coverage","openEvidence":"Publish the county contingency plan, pastoralist risks, assigned actions, resources and delivery evidence.","finance":"No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Siaya","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county convened a multi-sectoral session to refine its Multi-Hazard Contingency Plan, validate mapped risk zones and define early-warning and response arrangements.","source":"County Government of Siaya · preparedness meeting","sourceHref":"https://siaya.go.ke/siaya/county-government-of-siaya-strengthens-disaster-preparedness-ahead-of-projected-october-december-el-nino-rains/","published":"8 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the revised plan, departmental emergency budgets, mitigation works, owners and delivery dates.","finance":"Named in national health and livestock plans; dedicated departmental budgets were identified as a need, not a completed release."},{"jurisdiction":"Taita Taveta","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, river and settlement risks.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Tana River","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county and partners were reported to have prepared sector-specific advisories for safety and early action, with dissemination planned through radio, barazas, community structures and digital channels.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish the advisories, current contingency plan, evacuation sites, responsible actors and evidence of delivery to exposed communities.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Tharaka-Nithi","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, river and road risks.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Trans Nzoia","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"Emergency committees were reported activated, flood and landslide areas mapped across all five sub-counties and volunteers trained, while a spot check found no repair under way on damaged Kitale drainage.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report with implementation spot check","openEvidence":"Publish the county plan, training completion, drainage works, evacuation routes, owners and delivery dates.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Turkana","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The County Steering Group began multi-agency contingency planning, with a command centre, lead agency, resource mobilisation and pre-positioning still framed as recommendations.","source":"County Government of Turkana · steering-group record","sourceHref":"https://turkana.go.ke/2026/09/03/county-steering-group-csg-to-prepare-a-multi-agency-contingency-plan-to-mitigate-anticipated-el-nino-phenomenon/","published":"3 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Primary county record","openEvidence":"Publish the completed plan, command-centre status, lead agency, stock positions, evacuation sites and assigned early actions.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Uasin Gishu","status":"Execution reported","finding":"Heavy machinery was reported deployed in Kapseret, Kesses and Turbo to clear waterways, open drainage routes and remove silt from culverts.","source":"Radio Generation Kenya · multi-county preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge","published":"11 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"News report","openEvidence":"Publish work orders, exact sites, progress and completion evidence, and planned safety-centre readiness.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Vihiga","status":"No fresh local evidence","finding":"No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.","source":"National all-county preparedness direction","sourceHref":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/","published":"Checked 12 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"No county source found for the review period","openEvidence":"Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, drainage and public-health risks.","finance":"No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found."},{"jurisdiction":"Wajir","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county steering group activated emergency planning across livestock, agriculture, water, health and relief systems, with vaccination and pre-positioning described as planned measures.","source":"The Star · Wajir emergency measures","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/north-eastern/2026-09-10-wajir-unveils-emergency-measures-ahead-of-el-nino","published":"10 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named official statements in a news report","openEvidence":"Verify vaccination, stock placement, quantities, facility coverage, evacuation sites and delivery dates.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."},{"jurisdiction":"West Pokot","status":"Directive or readiness process","finding":"The county activated departments and disaster structures, validated a risk-assessment tool and planned field assessments, scenario planning and community sensitisation.","source":"The Star · West Pokot preparedness report","sourceHref":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/rift-valley/2026-09-03-west-pokot-steps-up-preparedness-ahead-of-el-nino-rains","published":"3 September 2026","evidenceBasis":"Named county statements in a news report","openEvidence":"Publish field-assessment results, scenarios, assigned early actions, local owners and implementation evidence.","finance":"The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found."}],"authority":[{"level":"Regional forecasts and ministerial coordination","institutions":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development","role":"Issue regional outlooks and convene the 15–17 September preparedness forum. The scheduled forum does not itself assign or prove national implementation.","basis":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre ministerial-forum notice","href":"https://www.icpac.net/events/high-level-ministerial-forum-on-el-ni%C3%B1o-preparedness-in-the-horn-of-africa/"},{"level":"National weather forecasts","institutions":"Kenya Meteorological Service Authority","role":"Provide and regulate meteorological services, including national, county and shorter-range forecast guidance.","basis":"Meteorology Act, 2026","href":"https://new.kenyalaw.org/akn/ke/act/2026/7"},{"level":"Drought readiness","institutions":"National Drought Management Authority","role":"Operate drought early warning and facilitate national and county contingency processes and preparedness strategies.","basis":"National Drought Management Authority Act, section 5","href":"https://new.kenyalaw.org/akn/ke/act/2016/4/eng@2022-12-31"},{"level":"National preparedness coordination","institutions":"National Disaster Operations Centre, Ministry of Interior and National Government Administration Officers","role":"Coordinate the national contingency approach, require county risk mapping and response strategies, and connect national and county emergency structures.","basis":"National all-county preparedness direction, 10 September 2026","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"},{"level":"National health preparedness","institutions":"Ministry of Health, Kenya National Public Health Institute and county health authorities","role":"Translate the seasonal signal into health surveillance, laboratory readiness, water and sanitation, risk communication and continuity-of-service measures.","basis":"WHO Kenya preparedness statement, 8 September 2026","href":"https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding"},{"level":"National livestock preparedness","institutions":"Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and participating county livestock functions","role":"Translate the seasonal signal into animal health, feed, water, market and awareness measures across the 24 counties named in the announced sector plan.","basis":"Reported livestock preparedness plan, 10–11 September 2026","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"level":"Public finance","institutions":"National Treasury and county treasuries","role":"Connect risk information to contingency financing, budget decisions, expenditure controls and reporting.","basis":"Kenya Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2026–2030","href":"https://www.treasury.go.ke/sites/default/files/Latest%20updates/Kenya%20Disaster%20Risk%20Financing%20Strategy%202026%20-2030.pdf"},{"level":"County implementation","institutions":"County governments, county disaster structures and local sector departments","role":"Publish local risk maps and response strategies, then convert instructions and resources into dated health, water, roads, livestock, evacuation and service-continuity action.","basis":"Constitution, Fourth Schedule; national all-county preparedness direction","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"}],"response":[{"date":"18 August","action":"Regional October–December outlook and technical statement published","actor":"Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development","stage":"Evidence production","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.icpac.net/documents/1118/GHACOF74_Final_Technical_Statement.pdf"},{"date":"31 August","action":"Kenya October–December seasonal outlook published","actor":"Kenya Meteorological Department","stage":"Evidence production","status":"Verified","href":"https://meteo.go.ke/documents/4790/OND_2026__Seasonal_Forecast.pdf"},{"date":"1 September","action":"Seven national preparedness measures reported under the national contingency approach","actor":"Ministry of Interior · National Disaster Operations Centre · national and county partners","stage":"National direction","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-01-state-unveils-7-measures-to-prepare-for-el-nino"},{"date":"7 September","action":"County plan, hotspots and evacuation centres reported; response-partner supplies and equipment positioned","actor":"Garissa County structures · National Drought Management Authority · Kenya Red Cross","stage":"Local planning and mobilisation","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/north-eastern/2026-09-07-garissa-steps-up-el-nino-preparedness-as-heavy-rains-loom"},{"date":"7 September","action":"Tender notice published for El Niño preparedness materials for Community Health Promoters","actor":"Kisii County","stage":"Procurement","status":"Verified","href":"https://kisii.go.ke/tender-notice/"},{"date":"8 September","action":"Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan activation confirmed","actor":"Ministry of Health · Kenya National Public Health Institute · county health authorities · partners","stage":"Sectoral commitment","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/news/preparing-kenyas-health-system-potential-el-nino-related-flooding"},{"date":"8 September","action":"Multi-Hazard Contingency Plan refinement and county risk-zone validation documented","actor":"Siaya County","stage":"Preparedness planning","status":"Verified","href":"https://siaya.go.ke/siaya/county-government-of-siaya-strengthens-disaster-preparedness-ahead-of-projected-october-december-el-nino-rains/"},{"date":"10 September","action":"All 47 counties directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare response strategies","actor":"National government · county governments · National Government Administration Officers","stage":"National-to-county trigger","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/state-steps-up-preparedness-as-el-nino-rains-loom/"},{"date":"10 September","action":"KSh2.1 billion livestock preparedness and anticipatory-action plan launched for 24 counties","actor":"Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development · county livestock functions","stage":"Reported sector commitment","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"date":"11 September","action":"County-by-county reporting documents works, stocks, machinery, evacuation preparation, committees and infrastructure gaps","actor":"Multiple county and national actors","stage":"Local readiness and execution","status":"Reported","href":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge"},{"date":"12 September","action":"Construction-site drainage restriction issued and 3,000-person drain-clearance deployment announced","actor":"Mombasa County","stage":"Local directive and planned deployment","status":"Reported","href":"https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/127003-mombasa-bans-site-mixing-ballast-sand-and-cement-mitigate-flooding"},{"date":"15–17 September","action":"High-Level Ministerial Forum scheduled to consider regional preparedness actions and anticipatory finance","actor":"Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Climate Prediction and Applications Centre · participating governments and partners","stage":"Regional decision window","status":"Mapped","href":"https://www.icpac.net/events/high-level-ministerial-forum-on-el-ni%C3%B1o-preparedness-in-the-horn-of-africa/"},{"date":"Open","action":"Published county strategies, national sector-plan documents and disaggregated assignments","actor":"National ministries · county governments","stage":"Commitment","status":"Open evidence"},{"date":"Open","action":"Budget releases, procurement awards, work orders and completed delivery records","actor":"National and county finance and implementing authorities","stage":"Finance and execution","status":"Open evidence"}],"finance":[{"label":"Disaster-risk financing policy","finding":"Kenya’s Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2026–2030 provides for different financing instruments at different levels of risk and for finance to be arranged in advance. It provides context; it does not show that money has been released for this forecast.","status":"Mapped","href":"https://www.treasury.go.ke/sites/default/files/Latest%20updates/Kenya%20Disaster%20Risk%20Financing%20Strategy%202026%20-2030.pdf"},{"label":"Reported emergency-finance framework","finding":"Reuters reported on 10 September that Kenya and the World Bank are finalising a framework that could permit rapid financing for an eligible emergency, including El Niño. No official project document, signed instrument, amount, appropriation or disbursement was publicly available for this assessment.","status":"Under review","href":"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenya-get-some-400-mln-emergency-world-bank-funds-within-six-weeks-source-says-2026-09-10/"},{"label":"National livestock plan","finding":"A KSh2.1 billion preparedness and anticipatory-action plan is reported for 24 counties. The official plan, budget authority, financing source, county shares, release status and implementation schedule were not publicly available for this assessment.","status":"Reported commitment","href":"https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-11-state-unveils-sh21bn-livestock-el-nino-plan"},{"label":"County allocations","finding":"Reports identify KSh20 million in Mombasa, KSh44.2 million in Migori, KSh27.7 million in Murang’a, KSh29 million in Meru and KSh20 million in Nyeri. Allocation is not treated as release, expenditure or delivery.","status":"Reported allocations","href":"https://radiogeneration.co.ke/counties/112746/counties-race-to-prepare-for-el-nino-rains-as-flood-hotspots-emerge"},{"label":"Procurement","finding":"Kisii County published an El Niño preparedness-materials tender for Community Health Promoters. Tender documents, award, contract value, payment and delivery remain open.","status":"Initiated","href":"https://kisii.go.ke/tender-notice/"},{"label":"Local execution","finding":"County and partner sources report works, stocks, equipment, farm inputs, assessments and machinery in 13 counties. Coverage, quantities, expenditure, completion and independent verification remain incomplete.","status":"Reported","href":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001#county-register"}],"versions":[{"version":"1.5","date":"12 September 2026","change":"County-level evidence was extended to all 47 counties, distinguishing reported execution and procurement from planning, national programme announcements and counties for which no recent local record was located.","availability":"Current record","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001"},{"version":"1.4","date":"12 September 2026","change":"The 15–17 September regional ministerial forum was identified as the next decision point; its proposed outputs remained prospective.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.4"},{"version":"1.3","date":"11 September 2026","change":"National health contingency planning and Mandera’s preparedness process were confirmed. Guidance from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the reported rapid-finance discussions were also assessed.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.3"},{"version":"1.2","date":"11 September 2026","change":"Primary legal and policy sources clarified institutional responsibility and the immediate operational horizon.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.2"},{"version":"1.1","date":"10 September 2026","change":"The immediate weekly forecast was distinguished from the seasonal outlook, and the six stages of the public decision were set out separately.","availability":"Complete preserved snapshot","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions/1.1"},{"version":"1.0","date":"9 September 2026","change":"The record opened with the national and regional October–December seasonal outlooks.","availability":"Change note only; a complete snapshot was not retained","href":"/signal-to-state/ke-ond-2026-001/versions#revision-1-0"}],"licenceNote":"Original editorial analysis may be cited with attribution. Source documents remain subject to their issuing institutions’ terms."}