{"schemaVersion":"1.0","schema":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/schema","canonical":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/sd-drought-2026-001","formats":{"html":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/sd-drought-2026-001","pdf":"https://ahmednadhir.com/records/signal-to-state-sd-drought-2026-001-revision-1-0-2026-10-24.pdf","json":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/sd-drought-2026-001","csv":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/sd-drought-2026-001?format=csv"},"record":{"id":"SD-DROUGHT-2026-001","slug":"sd-drought-2026-001","title":"Sudan’s drought and famine-risk alert: from warning to access, finance and delivery","shortTitle":"Sudan: drought and famine risk in Greater Darfur and Kordofan","jurisdiction":"Sudan","evidenceRegion":"Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan; national evidence where sources are not subnationally disaggregated","opened":"24 October 2026","openedIso":"2026-10-24","reviewed":"24 October 2026","reviewedIso":"2026-10-24","revision":"1.0","state":"Famine risk rising; access, finance and delivery must scale","territory":"sudan","hazard":"drought-and-food-insecurity","systems":["food-security","agriculture","water","public-health","humanitarian-access","public-finance"],"verifiedActionCount":3,"activeSignal":"The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification warns that severe drought is compounding conflict, displacement and restricted access across Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. Crop failure, water deficits and rising prices are increasing famine risk as the November–December harvest approaches. The warning does not by itself establish that access, finance or delivery has expanded to match the need.","scopeNote":"This record follows the drought, food-security and nutrition decision chain in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. It records national figures only where the source does not provide a state breakdown. Conflict remains the principal driver of the crisis; the record does not attribute every condition or outcome to drought."},"currentAssessment":{"latestChange":{"date":"24 October 2026","title":"A new IPC alert and corroborating crop evidence establish a worsening decision window across Greater Darfur and Kordofan.","detail":"The IPC alert of 12 October, FAO crop monitoring and the current FEWS NET assessment connect poor rainfall with crop failure, water stress and worsening food access. Field reporting published on 23 October adds current observations. This record is admitted now because the signal, affected territories, responsible actors and immediate decisions can be followed through durable sources."},"nextDecision":{"title":"Secure sustained access and publish the funding, allocation and delivery plan before failed harvests deepen the emergency.","timing":"Immediate. Harvesting is expected from November 2026, while WFP’s published financing requirement runs only to October and the IPC calls for immediate scale-up.","detail":"The next evidence should show where access is agreed, what funds are committed and released, what rations and health supplies are financed, which routes and facilities are operating, and whether delivery reaches the localities identified by the warning."},"responsibility":{"title":"Responsibility is divided among parties controlling access, Sudanese service institutions and the humanitarian system.","detail":"The parties and authorities exercising territorial control must protect civilians and permit safe, sustained access. Sudanese health, agriculture and water institutions retain service responsibilities where they can operate. WFP, WHO and partners manage major food, nutrition, health and logistics operations. One unified public chain cannot be inferred in a fragmented conflict setting."},"verifiedAction":{"title":"Three actions are verified: the IPC alert, WHO support to nutrition stabilisation centres and WFP food assistance.","detail":"WHO reports support to all 161 operational nutrition stabilisation centres and treatment of more than 26,000 children from January to August. WFP reports reaching more than four million people a month, including two million across Darfur and 825,000 in Kordofan. These are material operations, but they do not establish adequate coverage or continuity."},"openEvidence":{"title":"Area-by-area access, new funding, public allocations, delivery continuity and outcomes remain open.","detail":"The file does not establish a locality-by-locality access agreement, a Sudanese public appropriation or release tied to this alert, updated donor commitments against the October financing gap, complete ration levels, supply continuity, or outcomes after the failed rains. No evidence in this file is not proof that no action occurred."}},"decisionTrace":[{"code":"T0","stage":"Signal","question":"What changed in the evidence?","finding":"The IPC warns of rapidly worsening food insecurity and malnutrition across Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. FAO and FEWS NET identify severe rainfall deficits, crop failure, pasture and water stress and below-average harvest prospects.","status":"Verified","href":"#signal"},{"code":"T1","stage":"Trigger","question":"What decision threshold is in view?","finding":"Famine risk and acute-malnutrition evidence require immediate scale-up. The public alert does not publish one automatic activation formula; access, funding and operational decisions remain separate thresholds.","status":"Verified","href":"#trigger"},{"code":"T2","stage":"Authority","question":"Who can authorise access and who delivers?","finding":"Territorial control is fragmented. Parties and authorities controlling routes and areas hold access obligations; Sudanese service institutions and humanitarian agencies hold distinct operational roles. Local orders and agreements remain incompletely public.","status":"Mapped","href":"#authority"},{"code":"T3","stage":"Commitment and finance","question":"What resources are authorised and available?","finding":"WHO reports its US$97.7 million 2026 Sudan appeal was 23 per cent funded at the time of the IPC alert. WFP publishes a US$579 million requirement through October. These figures establish large financing gaps, not new releases tied to the alert.","status":"Open evidence","href":"#finance"},{"code":"T4","stage":"Execution","question":"What delivery is verified?","finding":"WHO reports support to 161 operational nutrition stabilisation centres and treatment of more than 26,000 children from January to August. WFP reports reaching more than four million people monthly, including two million in Darfur and 825,000 in Kordofan. Coverage, ration adequacy and continuity remain open.","status":"Verified","href":"#execution"},{"code":"T5","stage":"Outcome","question":"Has the scale-up reduced risk?","finding":"Not yet assessable. Current evidence shows worsening risk and continuing delivery, but does not establish that assistance, health services or water access are sufficient to reverse the deterioration.","status":"Not assessable at this stage","href":"#outcome"}],"materialChanges":[{"date":"24 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-24","context":"Sudan · Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan drought and famine-risk decision window","changed":"A new stable record is opened after the IPC alert, crop monitoring and current operational evidence establish a severe drought signal, named affected territories, an immediate decision window and a traceable access, finance and delivery chain.","source":"Integrated Food Security Phase Classification · Sudan food insecurity and malnutrition alert, 12 October 2026","sourceHref":"https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-157/en/","decision":"Secure sustained humanitarian access and publish the funding, allocation and delivery plan before failed harvests deepen the emergency.","assessment":"New record admitted. The warning and significant humanitarian delivery are verified. Adequate access, new finance, locality-level allocation, continuity and outcomes remain open.","effect":"New Sudan record admitted"}],"evidence":[{"horizon":"Food insecurity and malnutrition alert","source":"Integrated Food Security Phase Classification · Sudan alert","published":"12 October 2026","validFor":"Immediate action across Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan","finding":"The alert says severe drought, conflict, displacement and poor access are driving crop failure, water deficits and worsening food insecurity and malnutrition.","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-157/en/"},{"horizon":"2026 cereal production","source":"FAO Global Information and Early Warning System · Sudan Country Brief","published":"24 September 2026","validFor":"June–September rains and crops harvested from November 2026","finding":"Below-average rainfall affected crop establishment; conflict, high input costs and limited credit further constrained production. The brief identifies severe drought in important eastern crop areas and access constraints in Darfur and Kordofan.","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=SDN"},{"horizon":"Current food-security outlook","source":"FEWS NET · Sudan","published":"Current assessment accessed 24 October 2026","validFor":"Through January 2027 and the next lean season","finding":"Emergency outcomes remain widespread; drought has produced severely below-average harvest prospects and local crop failure across Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan.","status":"Verified","href":"https://fews.net/east-africa/sudan"},{"horizon":"Health and nutrition response","source":"World Health Organization · IPC Sudan alert","published":"12 October 2026","validFor":"Immediate health, nutrition, water and access decisions","finding":"WHO reports support to 161 nutrition stabilisation centres, more than 26,000 children treated from January to August and a 2026 appeal only 23 per cent funded.","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.who.int/news/item/12-10-2026-ipc-sudan-food-insecurity-and-malnutrition-alert"},{"horizon":"Food assistance and logistics","source":"World Food Programme · Sudan emergency","published":"Current operational page accessed 24 October 2026","validFor":"Current monthly delivery and financing requirement through October 2026","finding":"WFP reports reaching more than four million people monthly, including two million in Darfur and 825,000 in Kordofan, while urgently requiring US$579 million through October.","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/sudan"}],"authority":[{"level":"Access and protection","institutions":"Parties and authorities exercising territorial control","role":"Permit safe, sustained and impartial movement of personnel and supplies, and protect civilians and essential services. Area-specific agreements and orders are open evidence.","basis":"IPC and WHO recommended actions","href":"https://www.who.int/news/item/12-10-2026-ipc-sudan-food-insecurity-and-malnutrition-alert"},{"level":"Public services","institutions":"Sudanese health, agriculture and water institutions operating nationally and in affected states","role":"Maintain health, nutrition, water and agricultural services and publish the operational and resource trail where conditions permit. This file does not infer uniform control or capacity.","basis":"WHO and FAO institutional evidence","href":"https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=SDN"},{"level":"Humanitarian operations","institutions":"World Food Programme, World Health Organization and operational partners","role":"Deliver food, nutrition, health, logistics and related services; report reach, resources, access constraints and continuity at the most useful territorial level.","basis":"WFP and WHO operational reporting","href":"https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/sudan"},{"level":"State and local execution","institutions":"Competent administrations and service teams in the five Darfur and three Kordofan states","role":"Support access, local service continuity and delivery. Locality-level tasking and public-finance evidence remain incomplete in the sources reviewed.","basis":"Affected geography established by IPC and FEWS NET","href":"https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-157/en/"}],"finance":[{"label":"WHO 2026 Sudan appeal","amount":"US$97.7 million; 23% funded at 12 October","status":"Open evidence","finding":"The published funding level establishes a large health-response gap. It does not identify a new release following the alert."},{"label":"WFP operations through October 2026","amount":"US$579 million urgently required","status":"Open evidence","finding":"The requirement reaches the end of its stated period. An updated financing window, commitments, receipts and programme allocations are needed."},{"label":"Sudanese public appropriation or emergency release","amount":"Not evidenced in this file","status":"Open evidence","finding":"No attributable appropriation, release, procurement award or payment tied to this alert was verified. This is not proof that none exists."}],"response":[{"date":"12 October 2026","action":"Food insecurity and malnutrition alert published","actor":"Integrated Food Security Phase Classification","stage":"Authoritative warning and decision trigger","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-157/en/"},{"date":"January–August 2026, reported 12 October","action":"Support to all 161 operational nutrition stabilisation centres; more than 26,000 children treated","actor":"World Health Organization and partners","stage":"Health and nutrition execution","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.who.int/news/item/12-10-2026-ipc-sudan-food-insecurity-and-malnutrition-alert"},{"date":"Current page accessed 24 October 2026","action":"More than four million people reached monthly, including two million in Darfur and 825,000 in Kordofan","actor":"World Food Programme and partners","stage":"Food-assistance execution","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/sudan"}],"jurisdictionEvidence":[{"jurisdiction":"Greater Darfur · Central, East, North, South and West Darfur","status":"Warning and delivery verified; access and finance open","finding":"IPC and FEWS NET identify rapidly worsening conditions and severe harvest losses; WFP reports aggregate delivery across Darfur.","source":"IPC, FEWS NET and WFP","sourceHref":"https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-157/en/","published":"12–24 October 2026 sources reviewed","evidenceBasis":"State-level risk geography and regional delivery totals","openEvidence":"Locality access, allocations, ration levels, continuity and outcomes.","finance":"No state-specific appropriation, release or expenditure evidenced."},{"jurisdiction":"Greater Kordofan · North, South and West Kordofan","status":"Warning and delivery verified; access and finance open","finding":"IPC and FEWS NET identify worsening conditions and crop failure; WFP reports aggregate delivery across Kordofan.","source":"IPC, FEWS NET and WFP","sourceHref":"https://fews.net/east-africa/sudan","published":"Current assessment accessed 24 October 2026","evidenceBasis":"State-level risk geography and regional delivery totals","openEvidence":"Locality access, allocations, ration levels, continuity and outcomes.","finance":"No state-specific appropriation, release or expenditure evidenced."}],"reach":[{"geography":"Central, East, North, South and West Darfur","horizon":"Immediate famine-risk and harvest decision window","systems":"Food, nutrition, health, water and access","finding":"Mapped as central evidence territory. The fill represents the evidence area, not hazard severity."},{"geography":"North, South and West Kordofan","horizon":"Immediate famine-risk and harvest decision window","systems":"Food, nutrition, health, water and access","finding":"Mapped as central evidence territory. The fill represents the evidence area, not hazard severity."},{"geography":"Other Sudanese states","horizon":"Not classified by this record map","systems":"No map inference","finding":"Left neutral. National figures in the record do not support a state-level classification outside the admitted evidence geography."}],"versions":[{"version":"1.0","date":"24 October 2026","change":"The record opened with the IPC alert, crop evidence and verified health and food-assistance operations.","href":"/signal-to-state/sd-drought-2026-001","availability":"Current public record; an immutable webpage and JSON snapshot will be preserved before any later numbered revision."}],"sources":[{"name":"Integrated Food Security Phase Classification · Sudan: new evidence reveals rapidly worsening conditions across Greater Darfur and Kordofan","role":"Authoritative alert published 12 October 2026; establishes the worsening signal, geography and immediate action requirement.","href":"https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-157/en/"},{"name":"World Health Organization · IPC Sudan Food Insecurity and Malnutrition Alert","role":"Publishes health and nutrition implications, verified operating support, recommendations and the appeal funding level.","href":"https://www.who.int/news/item/12-10-2026-ipc-sudan-food-insecurity-and-malnutrition-alert"},{"name":"FAO Global Information and Early Warning System · Sudan Country Brief","role":"Reference date 24 September 2026; records rainfall, crop and market evidence before the November harvest.","href":"https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=SDN"},{"name":"FEWS NET · Sudan","role":"Current territorial food-security and harvest assessment, accessed 24 October 2026.","href":"https://fews.net/east-africa/sudan"},{"name":"World Food Programme · Sudan emergency","role":"Current operational reach, financing requirement and access position, accessed 24 October 2026.","href":"https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/sudan"},{"name":"Reuters · New famine risk haunts war-torn Sudan with El Niño-driven drought","role":"Field reporting published 23 October 2026; used as corroboration, not as the record’s primary authority.","href":"https://www.reuters.com/world/new-famine-risk-haunts-war-torn-sudan-with-el-nio-driven-drought-2026-10-23/"}],"licenceNote":"Original editorial analysis may be cited with attribution. Source documents remain subject to their issuing institutions’ terms."}