{"schemaVersion":"1.0","schema":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/schema","canonical":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/zm-elnino-2026-001","formats":{"html":"https://ahmednadhir.com/signal-to-state/zm-elnino-2026-001","pdf":"https://ahmednadhir.com/records/signal-to-state-zm-elnino-2026-001-revision-1-0-2026-10-14.pdf","json":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/zm-elnino-2026-001","csv":"https://ahmednadhir.com/api/signal-to-state/records/zm-elnino-2026-001?format=csv"},"record":{"id":"ZM-ELNINO-2026-001","slug":"zm-elnino-2026-001","title":"Zambia’s 2026/27 El Niño readiness plan: from seasonal forecast to local protection","shortTitle":"Zambia: El Niño readiness and anticipatory action","jurisdiction":"Zambia","evidenceRegion":"National; drier southern and central areas, with wetter northern areas identified in the forecast","opened":"14 October 2026","openedIso":"2026-10-14","reviewed":"14 October 2026","reviewedIso":"2026-10-14","revision":"1.0","state":"National plan finalised; finance and delivery trail open","territory":"zambia","hazard":"seasonal-drought-and-flood","systems":["disaster-preparedness","agriculture","food-security","water","health","education","energy","infrastructure","public-finance"],"verifiedActionCount":1,"activeSignal":"Zambia’s official 2026/27 seasonal forecast identifies a very strong El Niño, below-normal rainfall over most of the country, prolonged dry spells in the southern half from December to February, and localised flood risk in wetter northern areas. On 13 October the Government and UNICEF reported that the national El Niño Cluster Readiness, Preparedness and Anticipatory Action Plan had been finalised. The plan is a verified administrative action, not evidence that budgets, supplies or protection have reached districts and communities.","scopeNote":"This record concerns Zambia’s national 2026/27 readiness plan and the provincial forecast geography established by the Zambia Meteorological Department. It does not classify district conditions, attribute observed impacts, or infer implementation from the plan’s completion."},"currentAssessment":{"latestChange":{"date":"14 October 2026","title":"Zambia has moved from a seasonal warning to a finalised national readiness plan.","detail":"A joint Government and UNICEF release published on 13 October confirms that the plan has been finalised with line ministries, United Nations agencies and partners. The plan itself, its trigger table and its budget were not retrieved in the sources reviewed."},"nextDecision":{"title":"Publish the plan’s triggers, responsibilities and finance, then show pre-positioning and local delivery before the risk windows close.","timing":"Immediate. The forecast places rainfall onset from October in parts of the north and delays onset until December in much of the south and south-east; the prolonged dry-spell window is December 2026 to February 2027.","detail":"The next consequential evidence is a dated chain from trigger to national, provincial and district tasking, appropriation or release, procurement, stock placement, service delivery and outcome monitoring."},"responsibility":{"title":"The National Disaster Risk Management Division coordinates; the meteorological service and line ministries hold sector responsibilities.","detail":"The Office of the Vice-President’s National Disaster Risk Management Division coordinates the national plan. The Zambia Meteorological Department supplies the forecast. Agriculture, water, health, education, energy, infrastructure, livestock and fisheries institutions, with provincial and district authorities, are responsible for sector and local execution."},"verifiedAction":{"title":"One verified response entry: the 2026/27 national readiness and anticipatory-action plan was finalised.","detail":"The Government and UNICEF describe plan preparation, essential supplies and services, local preparedness, early action, disease surveillance, emergency logistics and safe-water systems. Those descriptions establish the plan’s intended scope, not completed procurement, stock placement or delivery."},"openEvidence":{"title":"The plan document, triggers, public-finance trail, procurement, stocks, local tasking, delivery and outcomes remain open.","detail":"No attributable plan budget, contingency release, procurement award, stock inventory, provincial or district mobilisation order, beneficiary-level delivery or outcome record was verified. European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations funding is described as support for Zambia’s anticipatory-action approach, but the amount and any release tied to this plan are not established."}},"decisionTrace":[{"code":"T0","stage":"Signal","question":"What is forecast, where and when?","finding":"The official forecast identifies a very strong El Niño, below-normal rainfall over most of Zambia, wetter conditions in Luapula, Northern and Muchinga provinces, prolonged dry spells in the southern half from December to February and localised flood risk in wetter northern areas.","status":"Verified","href":"#signal"},{"code":"T1","stage":"Trigger","question":"Which thresholds would activate early action?","finding":"The public release confirms that an anticipatory-action plan exists, but the plan’s trigger values, lead times and activation authority were not available in the sources reviewed.","status":"Open evidence","href":"#trigger"},{"code":"T2","stage":"Authority","question":"Who coordinates and who executes?","finding":"The National Disaster Risk Management Division coordinates. The forecast identifies sector leads, including the meteorological service, ministries responsible for agriculture, water, health, energy and infrastructure, the Water Resources Management Authority, ZESCO, the Zambezi River Authority and the Road Development Agency.","status":"Mapped","href":"#authority"},{"code":"T3","stage":"Commitment and finance","question":"What has been authorised and financed?","finding":"The national plan is finalised. No plan-specific appropriation, contingency release, donor amount, procurement award or payment was verified. A financing framework or partner support is not evidence of release or expenditure.","status":"Open evidence","href":"#finance"},{"code":"T4","stage":"Execution","question":"What has reached operations and communities?","finding":"The release describes strengthening surveillance, logistics and safe-water systems but provides no dated sites, quantities, procurement trail or delivery record. Execution cannot yet be verified from this file.","status":"Open evidence","href":"#execution"},{"code":"T5","stage":"Outcome","question":"What protection or service continuity can be assessed?","finding":"No attributable livelihood, health, water, education, energy or infrastructure outcome is yet established. The forecast and plan do not by themselves demonstrate reduced loss or protected services.","status":"Not assessable at this stage","href":"#outcome"}],"materialChanges":[{"date":"14 October 2026","dateIso":"2026-10-14","context":"Zambia · 2026/27 El Niño readiness; forecast issued 11 September, plan confirmation published 13 October","changed":"The Government reported that Zambia’s 2026/27 El Niño Cluster Readiness, Preparedness and Anticipatory Action Plan had been finalised, creating a defined national decision trace from the seasonal forecast to anticipatory action.","source":"Government of the Republic of Zambia and UNICEF Zambia","sourceHref":"https://www.unicef.org/zambia/press-releases/zambia-steps-early-action-protect-children-el-nino","decision":"Publish the plan’s triggers, responsibilities and finance, then show pre-positioning and local delivery before the risk windows close.","assessment":"New record admitted. Plan finalisation and the institutional chain are verified; activation, finance, procurement, local delivery and outcomes remain open.","effect":"New record admitted"}],"evidence":[{"horizon":"2026/27 seasonal rainfall and sector outlook","source":"Zambia Meteorological Department · 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast","published":"11 September 2026","validFor":"October 2026 to April 2027, including onset and December-to-February dry-spell windows","finding":"The forecast identifies below-normal rainfall over most of Zambia, above-normal rainfall in Luapula, Northern and Muchinga provinces and northern parts of North-Western Province, and delayed onset in much of the south and south-east. Its sector guidance calls for contingency planning and resource pre-positioning.","status":"Verified","href":"https://zmd.gov.zm/products/seasonal-forecast/seasonal-rainfall-forecast-20262027/"},{"horizon":"National preparedness and anticipatory action","source":"Government of the Republic of Zambia and UNICEF Zambia · joint release","published":"13 October 2026","validFor":"National planning and the immediate 2026/27 decision window","finding":"The release confirms plan finalisation and identifies the coordinating institution, participating line ministries and intended preparedness functions. It does not publish the plan, trigger table, budget, procurement or delivery results.","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.unicef.org/zambia/press-releases/zambia-steps-early-action-protect-children-el-nino"},{"horizon":"Legal and institutional basis","source":"National Assembly of Zambia · Disaster Management (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2026","published":"2026","validFor":"The national disaster-risk-management institution and proactive mandate","finding":"The amendment provides the legal basis for the National Disaster Risk Management Division that now coordinates the plan. The law is an enabling framework; it does not establish plan funding or implementation.","status":"Mapped","href":"https://www.parliament.gov.zm/node/13011"}],"authority":[{"level":"National coordination","institutions":"National Disaster Risk Management Division, Office of the Vice-President","role":"Coordinate the plan, inter-ministerial readiness and anticipatory action. Publication of the full trigger and tasking structure remains open.","basis":"Joint Government and UNICEF release; Disaster Management (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2026","href":"https://www.unicef.org/zambia/press-releases/zambia-steps-early-action-protect-children-el-nino"},{"level":"Climate information","institutions":"Zambia Meteorological Department","role":"Issue and update the seasonal forecast and sector guidance; supply forecast monitoring for operational decisions.","basis":"Official 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast","href":"https://zmd.gov.zm/products/seasonal-forecast/seasonal-rainfall-forecast-20262027/"},{"level":"Sector execution","institutions":"Ministries responsible for agriculture, water, health, education, energy, infrastructure, livestock and fisheries; Water Resources Management Authority, ZESCO, Zambezi River Authority and Road Development Agency","role":"Translate the national plan into sector readiness, continuity measures, procurement, staffing and delivery. Institution-specific execution evidence remains open.","basis":"Lead institutions named in the official forecast’s sector recommendations","href":"https://zmd.gov.zm/documents/162/ZMD_2026-2027_Seasonal_Rainfall_Forecast.pdf"},{"level":"Subnational implementation","institutions":"Provincial administrations, district authorities and local service teams","role":"Apply authorised early action and service measures in forecast-affected areas. No province- or district-specific order is verified in this file.","basis":"Local preparedness is within the plan’s stated scope; detailed tasking remains open","href":"https://www.unicef.org/zambia/press-releases/zambia-steps-early-action-protect-children-el-nino"}],"finance":[{"label":"Plan-specific appropriation or contingency release","amount":"Not evidenced in this file","status":"Open evidence","finding":"No amount, budget line, authorisation, transfer or drawdown tied to the finalised plan was verified."},{"label":"European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations support","amount":"Amount and plan attribution not evidenced","status":"Under review","finding":"The joint release says European humanitarian funding supports Zambia’s anticipatory-action approach. It does not establish the amount, release date or which plan activities the funding pays for."},{"label":"Procurement, emergency stocks and mobilisation","amount":"Not evidenced in this file","status":"Open evidence","finding":"No attributable award, contract, payment, stock inventory, staffing roster or provincial deployment was verified."}],"response":[{"date":"Published 13 October 2026","action":"National El Niño readiness, preparedness and anticipatory-action plan finalised","actor":"National Disaster Risk Management Division with line ministries, United Nations agencies and partners","stage":"Administrative commitment and coordination","status":"Verified","href":"https://www.unicef.org/zambia/press-releases/zambia-steps-early-action-protect-children-el-nino"}],"jurisdictionEvidence":[{"jurisdiction":"Zambia · national","status":"Verified plan; execution open","finding":"The national plan is finalised. Triggers, finance, procurement and delivery are not established.","source":"Government of the Republic of Zambia and UNICEF Zambia","sourceHref":"https://www.unicef.org/zambia/press-releases/zambia-steps-early-action-protect-children-el-nino","published":"13 October 2026","evidenceBasis":"Authoritative joint release confirming the plan and national coordinating institution","openEvidence":"Plan publication, trigger table, budget, releases, procurement, stocks, provincial and district tasking, delivery and outcomes.","finance":"No plan-specific appropriation, release or expenditure evidenced in this file."}],"reach":[{"geography":"Southern and Lusaka provinces","horizon":"Below-normal seasonal rainfall and prolonged dry-spell risk","systems":"Agriculture, food security, water, health, education, energy and infrastructure","finding":"The official outlook supports province-wide below-normal mapping for these areas. The plan is national; no province-specific activation or delivery is inferred."},{"geography":"Luapula, Northern and Muchinga provinces","horizon":"Above-normal seasonal rainfall and localised flood risk","systems":"Water, health, education, infrastructure, agriculture and disaster preparedness","finding":"The official outlook supports province-wide above-normal mapping. No observed flood or province-specific response is established."},{"geography":"Other provinces","horizon":"Mixed or sub-provincial forecast signal","systems":"National plan coverage","finding":"These provinces remain neutral on the map because the official forecast does not support a single province-wide category. Neutral does not mean no risk or no action."}],"versions":[{"version":"1.0","date":"14 October 2026","change":"The national readiness and anticipatory-action plan was confirmed as finalised against the official 2026/27 seasonal forecast.","href":"/signal-to-state/zm-elnino-2026-001","availability":"Current public record; an immutable webpage and JSON snapshot will be preserved before any later numbered revision."}],"sources":[{"name":"Government of the Republic of Zambia and UNICEF Zambia · Zambia steps up early action to protect children from El Niño","role":"Published 13 October 2026; confirms plan finalisation, coordination and intended preparedness functions, while leaving plan detail, finance and delivery open.","href":"https://www.unicef.org/zambia/press-releases/zambia-steps-early-action-protect-children-el-nino"},{"name":"Zambia Meteorological Department · 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast","role":"Issued 11 September 2026; authoritative forecast, onset timing, sector risks and lead institutions.","href":"https://zmd.gov.zm/products/seasonal-forecast/seasonal-rainfall-forecast-20262027/"},{"name":"Zambia Meteorological Department · full seasonal forecast PDF","role":"Primary forecast document used for the territorial evidence map and sector responsibility chain.","href":"https://zmd.gov.zm/documents/162/ZMD_2026-2027_Seasonal_Rainfall_Forecast.pdf"},{"name":"National Assembly of Zambia · Disaster Management (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2026","role":"Primary legal source for the renamed National Disaster Risk Management Division and its proactive risk-management basis.","href":"https://www.parliament.gov.zm/node/13011"}],"licenceNote":"Original editorial analysis may be cited with attribution. Source documents remain subject to their issuing institutions’ terms."}