Kenya’s October–December 2026 rains: the state of public preparedness

Signal

The enhanced-rainfall seasonal signal persists. The bulletin issued 30 September advances onset for northern counties to the first–second week of October and south-eastern counties to the second–third week; coastal rains are described as continuing from September. Local readiness decisions therefore have less lead time.

Trigger

IGAD member states have adopted a regional Call to Action, Kenya’s Ministry of Health has issued an operating advisory to all 47 counties and the national government has directed every county to prepare a response strategy. Later local actions include reported drainage and rescue-readiness execution in Machakos and Mombasa, a RANGE crisis-modifier launch in Marsabit and a Nyandarua preparedness allocation and clean-up.

Authority

Kenya’s delivery responsibility lies with the National Treasury, national coordination bodies, sector institutions and county governments. The CERP manual assigns the Treasury the activation request and funds-flow role and designates the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development’s Food Systems Resilience Project unit as coordinating implementation unit. These prospective roles apply only after approval and activation. Existing forecast, preparedness and local-delivery mandates continue.

Commitment

The CERP manual and May omnibus agreement establish a conditional national route for repurposing eligible undisbursed World Bank portfolio balances, but no activation or release is evidenced. Makueni names its Emergency Fund for reported works; Nyandarua reports KSh75 million set aside; and the RANGE crisis modifier is presented as funded. None of these statements supplies a complete appropriation, release, procurement, payment and completion trail. The RANGE account is internally inconsistent about the amount available for current anticipatory action.

Execution

The CERP operating framework is published, but activation, budget authority and disbursement are not evidenced. Reports from 17 counties now describe separate measures under execution. Machakos reports completed joint rescue training, drainage clearing, sensitisation and multi-agency activation; Mombasa reports drain clearing, box-culvert work and training for 300 officers; Nyandarua and Makueni retain reported local works. Marsabit has launched an anticipatory-action mechanism, but delivery remains incomplete. Kisii’s award and receipt remain open.

Outcome

Not yet assessable from the evidence in this file. The October–December season has begun; outcome assessment requires dated observations of exposure, service continuity and the performance of preparedness measures.

Machakos moves from planning to reported execution after joint flood-rescue training and activation of a multi-agency response system.

A government report published on 11 October says Kenya Red Cross in Machakos and the county fire and rescue service concluded a two-day joint water-rescue course at Athi River Dam. It also reports public sensitisation, drainage clearing in several towns, publication of emergency contacts and activation of a multi-agency response system. The report establishes operational steps, but not the finance, named drainage sites, mobilisation instrument, deployment record or completed protection.

Publish Kisii’s bid outcome and the authority, finance and delivery trail behind Machakos’s reported execution.

Kisii’s health department must publish the bid opening, evaluation, award, contract and receipt trail. Machakos should identify the drainage towns and sites, responsible units, training roster, activation instrument, deployment plan, finance and completion evidence. The open finance and delivery questions in Mombasa, Marsabit, Nyandarua and Makueni also remain consequential.

Kisii’s stated bid deadline is Monday 12 October 2026 at 10am, local time; no award timetable is published. Machakos gives no completion date for the drainage work or mobilisation period for the activated response system. No date for national emergency-finance approval or activation is stated.

Machakos County owns the local execution trail; Kisii owns the procurement decision; the National Treasury owns any national emergency-finance request.

Machakos County’s fire and rescue service, other county units and the activated multi-agency system must account for training, drainage work, mobilisation and deployment; Kenya Red Cross is the named training partner. Kisii’s health department retains the procurement decision. Other county and programme actors retain their existing responsibilities, while the National Treasury retains any national CERP activation and funds-flow role.

Seventeen response entries are documented; seventeen counties have measures reported under way.

Machakos moves from a readiness process to reported execution; its existing county evidence is enriched, so the response-entry count does not rise. The count describes evidenced signals, commitments, procurement and reported execution, not 17 completed interventions. The national emergency-finance manual remains an enabling framework, with approval, activation and release open.

Machakos’s finance, named work sites and deployment evidence remain open.

The report does not identify the drainage towns or sites, budget authority, release, procurement, expenditure, training roster, activation instrument, deployment record or completion evidence. Kisii’s award and distribution, Mombasa’s work-site and finance trail, Marsabit’s crisis-modifier amount and delivery, Nyandarua’s 75 million Kenyan shillings (KSh) transaction trail, Makueni’s Emergency Fund transactions and national emergency-finance activation also remain open.

Final Contingent Emergency Response Project manual published, defining activation, procurement, budgeting, funds flow and reporting for eligible crises

6 October · National Treasury · Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development CERP implementation unit · National Drought Management Authority · sector institutions · World Bank · Verified

October bulletin issued with earlier onset guidance

30 September · Kenya Meteorological Service Authority · Verified

Masalale–Kilkey flood-control tender advertised in Eldas, Wajir

14 September; verified 2 October · Northern Water Works Development Agency · Verified

KSh152 million preparedness requirement published; later county account reports river and road works under way through the Emergency Fund

30 September requirement; works dated 8 October and published 9 October · Makueni County Government · Verified

Senate committee directed a Malindi sanitation response and resolved to call for the Governor’s roadmap, budget commitments and timetable

Reported 24 September · Senate Standing Committee on Devolution and Intergovernmental Relations · Kilifi County Executive · Verified

Forecast-to-Farmer proof of concept launched for authorised four-week forecasts to be translated into agricultural advice during the short rains

22–23 September · Kenya Meteorological Department · Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation · participating advisory organisations · Verified

Regional October–December outlook and technical statement published

18 August · Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Verified

Kenya October–December seasonal outlook published

31 August · Kenya Meteorological Department · Verified

Seven national preparedness measures reported under the national contingency approach

1 September · Ministry of Interior · National Disaster Operations Centre · national and county partners · Verified

County plan, hotspots and evacuation centres reported; response-partner supplies and equipment positioned

7 September · Garissa County structures · National Drought Management Authority · Kenya Red Cross · Reported

El Niño preparedness-materials procurement documented for community health promoters; 2 October notice specifies KSh45 million estimate and 12 October bid deadline

7 September baseline; 2 October notice verified 8 October · Kisii County · Verified

Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan activation confirmed

8 September · Ministry of Health · Kenya National Public Health Institute · county health authorities · partners · Verified

Multi-Hazard Contingency Plan refinement and county risk-zone validation documented

8 September · Siaya County · Verified

All 47 counties directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare response strategies

10 September · National government · county governments · National Government Administration Officers · Verified

KSh2.1 billion livestock preparedness and anticipatory-action plan launched for 24 counties

10 September · Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development · county livestock functions · Reported

County-by-county reporting documents works, stocks, machinery, evacuation preparation, committees and infrastructure gaps; Machakos later reports rescue training, drainage clearing, public sensitisation and multi-agency activation

11 September baseline; Machakos execution reported 11 October · Multiple county and national actors · Machakos County fire and rescue service · Kenya Red Cross · Reported

Drain clearing and box-culvert work reported under way; 300 county and national officers reported trained in emergency response

12 September directive; execution reported 10 October · Mombasa County · Reported

RANGE Crisis Modifier launched for drainage, rangeland, water, livestock-health, cash-for-work and offtake interventions

10 October · Marsabit County Government · Frontier Counties Development Council · Mercy Corps · programme partners · Reported

KSh75 million preparedness set-aside reported and Ol Kalou clean-up launched

8 October; admitted 11 October · Nyandarua County Government · Reported

All-county health preparedness advisory issued with operational measures for emergency coordination, facilities, stocks, surveillance, water safety, referrals and continuity of care

15 September · Ministry of Health · county health authorities · public-health institutions and partners · Verified

High-Level Call to Action adopted, committing member states to activate contingency plans, pre-position supplies, strengthen surveillance and link anticipatory finance to agreed triggers

17 September · Intergovernmental Authority on Development · Climate Prediction and Applications Centre · participating governments and partners · Verified

Regional Preparedness and Early Action Technical Annex with country priorities, responsibilities and timelines

Open · Intergovernmental Authority on Development · member states · Open evidence

Published county strategies, national sector-plan documents and disaggregated assignments

Open · National ministries · county governments · Open evidence

Budget releases, procurement awards, work orders and completed delivery records

Open · National and county finance and implementing authorities · Open evidence

RANGE Crisis Modifier

The 10 October government report first describes a four per cent crisis-modifier set-aside within a €15 million programme, which would imply €600,000, but later attributes €15 million to current anticipatory action. Because the account is internally inconsistent, no crisis-modifier amount is treated as verified. Trigger, release, procurement, provider payment and county-level delivery remain open.

Nyandarua preparedness set-aside

The county executive reports KSh75 million set aside for El Niño preparedness. The account does not supply the appropriation or contingency authority, release, procurement, payment or expenditure record. Separate environmental allocations are not attributed to this preparedness amount.

Wajir flood-control procurement

The national agency reports receiving funds but the amount and release trail are not evidenced here. KSh3 million is tender security, not an allocation or contract price. Award, payment and completion remain open.

Makueni Emergency Fund works

The county reports named river and road works being implemented through its Emergency Fund. This verifies a financing route and reported execution, not the fund appropriation, release, contract value, payment or completed works. The earlier KSh152 million figure remains a projected preparedness requirement.

Malindi flood mitigation

The municipality reported redirecting capital projects. No approved revision, release, award or payment is evidenced by that statement.

Forecast-to-Farmer pilot

The KMD release identifies a commitment charter, technical partners and supporting organisations, but does not publish a Kenyan appropriation, procurement award, contract value or disbursement for the proof of concept. Existing partner programmes and their reach are not treated as new finance or delivery under this pilot.

Disaster-risk financing policy

Kenya’s Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2026–2030 provides for different financing instruments at different levels of risk and for finance to be arranged in advance. It provides context; it does not show that money has been released for this forecast.

Contingent Emergency Response Project

The final manual and the May omnibus agreement define a route for repurposing up to 10 per cent of eligible undisbursed World Bank portfolio balances in a World Bank financial year. The manual states that no financing is committed at approval. The World Bank lists project P518719 in appraisal, and the file contains no eligible-emergency determination, Activation Request, Crisis Response Plan, no-objection, named host-operation amount, ring-fenced budget or disbursement for the short rains.

National livestock plan

A KSh2.1 billion preparedness and anticipatory-action plan is reported for 24 counties. The official plan, budget authority, financing source, county shares, release status and implementation schedule were not publicly available for this assessment.

County allocations

Reports identify KSh20 million in Mombasa, KSh44.2 million in Migori, KSh27.7 million in Murang’a, KSh29 million in Meru, KSh20 million in Nyeri and KSh75 million in Nyandarua. Allocation is not treated as release, expenditure or delivery.

Procurement

Kisii’s official tender documents specify a KSh45 million estimate and 12 October bid deadline. The estimate does not establish an appropriation or release. Award, contract value, payment, receipt and onward distribution remain open.

Local execution

County and partner sources now report works, stocks, equipment, farm inputs, assessments, training or machinery under way in 17 counties. Machakos moves from planning into reported execution at this review; Marsabit retains a newly launched anticipatory-action mechanism at readiness stage until delivery is evidenced. Coverage, quantities, expenditure, deployment, completion and independent verification remain incomplete.

12 October 2026 · Machakos execution reported; finance, deployment and completion open

Machakos County · flood-rescue training, drainage work and multi-agency activation

A Kenya News Agency report published on 11 October says Kenya Red Cross in Machakos and the county fire and rescue service concluded a two-day joint water-rescue course at Athi River Dam. It also reports public sensitisation, drainage clearing in several towns, publication of emergency contacts and activation of a multi-agency response system.

Publish the training roster and readiness checks, identify the drainage towns and sites, responsible units and completion status, and disclose the multi-agency activation instrument, mobilisation period, deployment plan and finance trail.

Machakos moves from a directive and readiness process to reported execution. The existing county evidence is enriched rather than counted as a new response entry. The report does not establish budget authority, release, procurement, expenditure, deployment or completed protection.

11 October 2026 · Mombasa execution and training reported; finance and completion open

Mombasa County · reported drainage execution and multi-agency training

A Kenya News Agency report published on 10 October says maintenance teams are clearing major storm drains, removing waste and finishing box culverts across Mombasa. It also reports that 300 county and national officers have participated in rescue, marine-safety, casualty-management and emergency-response exercises.

Identify the active drainage sites, contracts and resource mobilisation; complete and inspect the work; publish the deployment and readiness records for the trained teams.

Mombasa moves from a directive and planned deployment to reported execution and completed training. The existing response entry is enriched rather than counted twice. The report does not establish the earlier KSh20 million allocation’s release or expenditure, the full 3,000-person deployment, or completed drainage protection.

11 October 2026 · Anticipatory-action mechanism launched; amount and delivery trail open

Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu · RANGE anticipatory-action mechanism

Government reporting published on 10 October records the launch in Marsabit of the RANGE Crisis Modifier for Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu. It identifies drainage clearance, rangeland and water rehabilitation, livestock vaccination, cash for work, livestock offtake and an e-voucher vaccination route as intended interventions.

Publish the activation trigger, county work plans, beneficiaries, accredited providers, release and procurement records, delivery dates and verified outputs for each county.

Marsabit moves from national-programme coverage to a county-hosted anticipatory-action launch. A new response entry is admitted. The report first describes a four per cent crisis-modifier set-aside within a €15 million programme, then attributes €15 million to current anticipatory action; no amount is treated as verified until the programme owners reconcile the figures and publish the transaction trail.

11 October 2026 · Nyandarua allocation and clean-up reported; finance trail open

Nyandarua County · preparedness allocation and clean-up launch

A government news report published on 8 October says Nyandarua set aside KSh75 million for El Niño preparedness and records a clean-up flag-off in Ol Kalou. It separately reports larger environmental allocations for dam desilting, boreholes and conservation, which are not treated as spending under the KSh75 million preparedness statement.

Publish the KSh75 million budget authority, programme of work, release, procurement and expenditure records, and document the Ol Kalou clean-up’s scope and completion.

Nyandarua moves from no recent county-specific record to a reported allocation and initial activity. A new response entry is admitted. The statement does not establish appropriation, release, procurement, expenditure or county-wide delivery.

10 October 2026 · Makueni execution and funding route verified; transaction trail and completion open

Makueni County · reported flood-protection execution and Emergency Fund route

A county account dated 8 October and published on 9 October reports ongoing works at the Kyanzonzo and Munyuni rivers in Kalawa Ward, including a sand dam and a one-metre retaining wall, and inspection of the 400-metre Uma–Kalambya Road in Kithungo/Kitundu Ward. The county says the projects are being implemented through its Emergency Fund and names Kitundu, Mbitini, Nzaui, Kalawa and Kiima Kiu as vulnerable areas targeted by the programme.

Complete the named works and publish the Emergency Fund authority, allocation and release, procurement or work orders, payments, inspection and completion evidence.

Makueni moves from a published preparedness requirement to reported local execution with a named financing route. The verified-response count remains 15 because this enriches the existing Makueni entry rather than adding a second action. The evidence does not establish the fund’s appropriation or release, contract values, payments or completed protection; the national emergency-finance framework remains unactivated.

8 October 2026 · Kisii procurement deadline and estimate verified; delivery open

Kenya · Kisii health preparedness procurement

The Kisii County notice listed on 2 October is verified with tender 2407736-2026/2027: a KSh45 million estimate, bids closing 12 October at 10am and a delivery window 5–30 days after a purchase order or contract. The earlier file established procurement initiation but lacked these terms.

Complete the bid process on 12 October, then publish the evaluation, award, funding authority, contract date, receipt and onward distribution records.

The local procurement decision is now dated and its estimate documented. Verified response count remains 15 because this enriches the existing Kisii entry. No appropriation, release, award, payment or delivery is established; national emergency-finance activation remains open.

7 October 2026 · Finance framework verified; no activation or release

Kenya · contingent emergency finance

The National Drought Management Authority published Kenya’s final Contingent Emergency Response Project manual on 6 October. It defines the institutions, evidence, request, Crisis Response Plan, procurement, budgeting and funds-flow steps through which up to 10 per cent of eligible undisbursed World Bank portfolio balances may be repurposed in a World Bank financial year.

The National Treasury must decide whether an eligible emergency is occurring or imminent and, if so, identify host operations and amounts, submit an Activation Request and Crisis Response Plan, and obtain World Bank acceptance and no-objection before funds can move.

The prospective finance route moves from a reported discussion to a verified enabling framework. It is not yet available finance for preparedness or response: the World Bank project remains in appraisal and no activation, allocation, procurement under an approved response plan or disbursement is evidenced.

2 October 2026 · Decision window shortened

Kenya · revised onset guidance, verified 2 October

The monthly bulletin advances northern onset from the second–third to the first–second week of October and south-eastern onset from the third–fourth to the second–third week. Coastal rains now continue from September rather than beginning in the second–third week of October.

Accelerate county stocks, drainage, evacuation and service-readiness decisions; check local short-range warnings.

Preparedness lead time is shorter. The enhanced-rainfall seasonal outlook and uneven-delivery assessment remain; the forecast is not evidence of a local flood or completed readiness.

2 October 2026 · Procurement evidenced

Wajir · national-agency procurement newly verified 2 October

The Northern Water Works Development Agency’s notice dated 14 September advertised Masalale–Kilkey flood-control works in Eldas, with a stated closing date of 30 September. The tender document specifies water pans, dykes, gabions and a box culvert.

Establish the tender outcome, contract price, funding trail and achievable works timetable.

Wajir now has primary procurement evidence alongside county planning. The agency says funds were received but supplies no transaction trail here. No award, payment or completed protection is verified; a direct causal link to the seasonal forecast is not asserted.

2 October 2026 · Financing requirement specified

Makueni · resource mobilisation on 30 September

The county published a KSh152 million preparedness estimate following a partners’ conference in Wote.

Identify approved county and partner contributions, release dates and assigned evacuation and essential-service measures.

A quantified requirement is now public. It is not evidence that KSh152 million was appropriated, released or spent. The county remains at planning stage in this file.

1 October 2026 · Local accountability strengthened

Kilifi County · Malindi sanitation accountability

A Parliament notice published on 24 September records a Senate committee direction for Malindi sewerage and a request for a roadmap, budget commitments and timeline. The underlying visit date is unspecified.

Kilifi’s executive must identify the works, finance and timetable, and supply evidence of implementation before onset; no hearing date is stated.

The local accountability trace is stronger. Municipal statements about reallocation and cleaning remain claims; no release or completion evidence is established here. The wider uneven-preparedness assessment is unchanged.

23 September 2026 · Agricultural delivery pathway verified

Kenya agriculture · forecast-to-advice delivery pathway

The Kenya Meteorological Department published a Forecast-to-Farmer pilot for the October–December short rains. It will make authorised, localised four-week forecasts available through an application programming interface for translation and dissemination by participating extension, research, media, SMS and digital advisory channels.

KMD and participating organisations now need to show where the pilot operates, when authorised forecasts and advisories are issued, which farmers receive them, whether the information is understood and useful, and what operational lessons will shape the March–May 2027 rollout.

A national agricultural climate-service commitment and delivery architecture are now verified. The announcement does not establish a new public appropriation, procurement, farmer-level receipt, behaviour change or outcome. Wider Kenyan preparedness finance and county execution remain open.

18 September 2026 · Regional commitment verified

Greater Horn · adopted regional preparedness commitment

IGAD published the High-Level Call to Action adopted on 17 September. Member states commit to activate national and subnational contingency plans before the rains, pre-position essential supplies, strengthen health and livestock surveillance, protect critical infrastructure and connect anticipatory finance to agreed triggers.

Kenya now needs to identify which national and county plans are activated, who owns each action, which thresholds release finance, what supplies are pre-positioned and what evidence will be reported before and during the October–December season.

The regional decision outcome is now verified and strengthens the commitment stage of the trace. It does not establish a Kenyan appropriation, release, procurement or completed delivery. The accompanying Technical Annex, said to contain country priorities, responsibilities and timelines, remains open evidence.

17 September 2026 · Regional outcome remains open

Greater Horn · regional ministerial decision point

The official event page now marks the 15–17 September High-Level Ministerial Forum as ended. It had identified an IGAD Ministerial Call to Action and a Regional Preparedness and Early Action Technical Report as intended outputs, but neither document was linked or otherwise located in the authoritative sources reviewed on 17 September.

IGAD and ICPAC need to publish the endorsed text, named responsibilities, anticipatory-finance arrangements and delivery dates so that the regional decision can be assessed and followed into national action.

The scheduled regional decision window has passed, but its substantive result is not yet assessable from the published record. Kenya’s preparedness assessment is unchanged; publication of the two expected outputs is now an immediate evidence test.

15 September 2026 · Health trigger strengthened

Kenya health sector · all-county operating instruction

The Ministry of Health issued an advisory to all 47 counties specifying emergency coordination, protection of at-risk health facilities, medicine and vaccine availability, disease surveillance, drinking-water safety, malaria prevention, ambulance and referral readiness, nutrition, continuity of essential services, mental-health support and public communication.

County health authorities now need to show which coordination structures are active, which facilities and populations are prioritised, what stocks and referral arrangements are in place, and how the measures are financed and verified.

The evidence moves health preparedness beyond confirmation of a national plan to a more specific operating instruction. It strengthens the national trigger without establishing county implementation or readiness.

12 September 2026 · County preparations are uneven

National review of county preparedness

County-level evidence published between 17 August and 12 September presents markedly different stages of preparedness across Kenya: reported execution in 13 counties, procurement in Kisii, directives or planning in 20 counties, and substantial gaps elsewhere.

County plans need to identify the responsible office, funded measure, procurement or work instruction, delivery date and public evidence of completion before the October rains.

Preparedness activity is more extensive than earlier evidence showed, although its depth varies sharply. Five counties appear only in national programme announcements, seven have no recent county-specific public record, and one has a reported implementation gap.

12 September 2026 · Mombasa response specified

Mombasa County · urban drainage and flood prevention

From 14 September, Mombasa will restrict roadside construction mixing that obstructs drainage. The Governor also announced a phased deployment of 3,000 young people to clear drains, culverts and waterways after flooding disrupted access in several neighbourhoods.

Enforcement records, deployment rosters, named work sites and completion reports will determine whether the measures reduce obstruction before heavier rainfall.

The directive and deployment announcement constitute a formal county response. Evidence of mobilisation, expenditure and completed clearance remains unavailable.

12 September 2026 · National preparedness mandate established

Kenya · all-county readiness and livestock preparedness

The national government directed all 47 counties to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare response strategies. A separate KSh2.1 billion livestock preparedness plan was reported for 24 counties.

County strategies, the official livestock plan, county allocations, releases and delivery schedules are required to establish how the national direction will be carried out.

The national instruction and reported sector commitment establish a preparedness mandate. County compliance, sector allocations and the movement of funds remain unclear.

12 September 2026 · Garissa preparedness evidence strengthened

Garissa County · flood readiness and emergency response

Garissa reported a preparedness plan, mapped hotspots and evacuation centres, and established weekly coordination. The Kenya Red Cross reported that first-line responders and emergency supplies had been positioned, with boats and vehicles available or on standby.

The county plan, resource inventory, site-level coverage and financing are needed to establish the scale and durability of the reported preparations.

Garissa has identifiable planning and reported mobilisation. Quantities, county financing and independent confirmation of delivery remain unavailable.

12 September 2026 · Regional decision date confirmed

Greater Horn · regional preparedness and anticipatory finance

The Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development scheduled a High-Level Ministerial Forum on El Niño preparedness for 15–17 September. The intended outputs are a ministerial call to action and a regional preparedness and early-action technical report.

The forum is expected to identify preparedness measures, responsible institutions, anticipatory-finance arrangements and delivery deadlines before the October–December season.

The regional decision date and convening responsibility are confirmed. Its proposed outputs will require assessment after publication.

11 September 2026 · Health contingency planning confirmed

Kenya health sector · El Niño contingency planning

The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that the Ministry of Health had activated a Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan covering surveillance, laboratory readiness, water and sanitation, risk communication and continuity of essential services.

The plan now requires county assignments, responsible institutions, resources and an implementation timetable before the October–December rains.

National health preparedness has moved into an active planning phase. The plan document, county assignments, finance, procurement and delivery records remain unavailable.

11 September 2026 · Mandera planning confirmed

Mandera County · scenario planning and early action

Mandera County reported that it was developing a participatory scenario plan with the World Food Programme (WFP) and other partners to define likely scenarios and early actions.

The completed plan needs to identify multi-sector priorities, selected early actions, responsible institutions and the resources required for implementation.

A county preparedness process is confirmed. The notice provides no completed plan, financing, procurement or field-delivery evidence.

11 September 2026 · North-eastern risk clarified

North-eastern Kenya · sector guidance for enhanced rainfall

The Summary for Decision Makers from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced rainfall and provides sector guidance for agriculture, health, water, livestock, infrastructure and security.

National and county institutions need to prioritise preparedness across health, water, livestock, agriculture, infrastructure and security in the areas facing the highest rainfall probability.

The guidance strengthens the geographic and sector basis for preparedness while leaving the broader seasonal outlook unchanged.

11 September 2026 · Financing route remains unconfirmed

Kenya · prospective disaster-risk finance

Reuters reported that Kenya and the World Bank were finalising a rapid-finance framework that could cover an eligible El Niño emergency.

A signed instrument, eligibility decision and public allocation are required before the framework can be treated as available finance for preparedness or response.

The report identifies a prospective financing route. No primary project document, signed instrument, appropriation, amount or disbursement has been published.

11 September 2026 · Institutional responsibility clarified

Kenya · legal mandate and institutional responsibility

The Meteorology Act, National Drought Management Authority Act, Constitution and Disaster Risk Financing Strategy identify the principal mandates for forecasting, drought readiness, county functions and risk finance.

Public institutions need to identify who owns forecast services, contingency processes, local delivery and the passage from risk information to finance.

Institutional responsibility and the legal basis for financing can now be stated more precisely. The meteorological assessment is unchanged.

10 September 2026 · Immediate forecast horizon included

Greater Horn · near-term heat and operational conditions

The forecast for 8–15 September from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development provides short-term information for decisions about heat exposure, water demand, outdoor work and livestock care.

Health, water, labour and livestock authorities need to account for near-term heat exposure, water demand, outdoor work and animal care.

The weekly forecast informs immediate operating conditions while leaving the October–December assessment unchanged.

9 September 2026 · Seasonal outlook established

Kenya and the Greater Horn · October–December seasonal outlook

Regional and Kenyan seasonal outlooks established an October–December preparedness window for rainfall, flooding, drainage, pasture, water safety and continuity of essential services.

National and county authorities need to prepare for flooding, drainage pressure, pasture and water-safety risks, and disruption to essential services.

The seasonal signal was sufficiently clear to warrant continuing scrutiny of public preparedness and delivery.

Kenya; participating pilot locations were not specified in the public release

Agricultural climate-service pilot · October–December · Meteorological services · agricultural extension · research · SMS and digital advice · farmer decisions

The pilot is designed to move authorised four-week forecasts through organisations already serving farmers. National reach claims for existing channels are not treated as proof of the pilot’s geographic coverage or farmer receipt.

All 47 counties

National preparedness · before onset · Disaster coordination · evacuation · health services · public communication · service continuity

Every county has been directed to map flood-prone areas, identify safer evacuation grounds and prepare a response strategy. A subsequent health advisory specifies emergency coordination, facility protection, stocks, surveillance, referral readiness and continuity of essential care across all 47 counties.

North-eastern Kenya, arid and semi-arid counties, and pastoral systems

Seasonal · October–December · Water · livestock · health · access roads · humanitarian logistics

The 30 September bulletin advances onset for Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit to the first–second week of October. The livestock plan adds national programme coverage across 24 counties, but local execution remains uneven.

Towns, lake and river basins, slopes and coastal settlements

Seasonal · October–December · Drainage · sanitation · agriculture · transport · settlements · trade

Reported action concentrates on drainage, evacuation, public health, farm inputs and response coordination. The presence of one measure does not establish readiness across a whole county or system.

Kisii County Department of Medical Services, Public Health and Sanitation

County health procurement · Kisii · Conduct the bid process and account for evaluation, award, contracting, inspection and receipt at the department’s Kisii Town offices. Onward distribution and public-service use require separate evidence.

National Treasury; Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development CERP implementation unit; sector ministries; National Drought Management Authority; county governments; World Bank

Contingent emergency finance · The Treasury determines whether to seek activation, identifies eligible host operations and amounts, signs the request and oversees funds flow. The designated implementation unit coordinates fiduciary and reporting duties. Sector institutions and counties deliver approved activities according to their mandates. The World Bank must accept the eligible-emergency determination and grant no-objection before disbursement conditions are lifted.

Northern Water Works Development Agency

National works agency · Wajir · Conduct the Eldas flood-control procurement and establish the award, contract, supervision and delivery trail. County preparedness remains a separate responsibility.

Kilifi County Executive; Malindi Municipality; Senate Standing Committee on Devolution and Intergovernmental Relations

Malindi sanitation and county oversight · The executive and municipality must account for the local response. The committee seeks a works and budget timetable; no hearing date is given.

Kenya Meteorological Department, Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation and participating advisory organisations

National agricultural climate-service pilot · KMD convenes the pilot, authorises forecast products and retains oversight. Participating organisations translate those forecasts into farmer-facing advice and distribute it through extension, media, SMS and digital channels during the proof-of-concept period.

Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, and specialised regional institutions

Regional forecasts and ministerial coordination · Provide regular impact-based forecasts, coordinate transboundary preparedness, strengthen animal-disease surveillance, support anticipatory finance, monitor the Call to Action and report to the IGAD Council of Ministers. A regional post-season review is due in the first quarter of 2027.

Kenya Meteorological Service Authority

National weather forecasts · Provide and regulate meteorological services, including national, county and shorter-range forecast guidance.

National Drought Management Authority

Drought readiness · Operate drought early warning and facilitate national and county contingency processes and preparedness strategies.

National Disaster Operations Centre, Ministry of Interior and National Government Administration Officers

National preparedness coordination · Coordinate the national contingency approach, require county risk mapping and response strategies, and connect national and county emergency structures.

Ministry of Health, Kenya National Public Health Institute and county health authorities

National health preparedness · Direct emergency coordination, protection of at-risk facilities, medicine and vaccine availability, surveillance, water safety, referral readiness, nutrition, mental-health support and continuity of essential services.

Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and participating county livestock functions

National livestock preparedness · Translate the seasonal signal into animal health, feed, water, market and awareness measures across the 24 counties named in the announced sector plan.

National Treasury and county treasuries

Public finance · Connect risk information to contingency financing, budget decisions, expenditure controls and reporting.

County governments, county disaster structures and local sector departments

County implementation · Publish local risk maps and response strategies, then convert instructions and resources into dated health, water, roads, livestock, evacuation and service-continuity action.

Baringo · Directive or readiness process

9 September 2026

A multi-agency team was reported to be assessing readiness around Lakes Baringo and Bogoria; the available report does not identify completed protective works.

Publish named sites, assigned works, responsible officers and completion evidence.

The county is named in the KSh2.1 billion livestock plan, but no public record of its allocation or release was found.

News report citing public authorities

Bomet · Directive or readiness process

11 September 2026

Flood hotspots were reported mapped in Chepalungu, Sotik and lower Bomet East, with public sensitisation and health-risk planning under way.

Publish the county plan, mapped sites, health measures, owners and implementation dates.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

News report

Bungoma · Implementation gap reported

10 September 2026

Reporting on 10 September documented rain damage to homes and businesses and resident concern about preparedness, without identifying a fresh county measure in the review window.

Publish the county response plan, active mitigation work, emergency contacts and affected-site assessment.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

Mainstream news report

Busia · Execution reported

23 August 2026

A current report documented secondary dykes along River Nzoia and the return of farming on previously flooded land in Budalang’i, while noting that some areas remain exposed.

Publish current dyke condition, uncovered settlements, maintenance work and evacuation arrangements.

The available source does not establish the funding or current maintenance expenditure for the dyke works.

News report; works began before the stated review period

Elgeyo-Marakwet · Execution reported

31 August 2026

The county states that it started receiving planting and top-dressing fertiliser for short-season crops ahead of the El Niño rainfall period.

Publish quantities received, distribution sites, beneficiary coverage and delivery records.

The source and value of the subsidy, and expenditure evidence, are not published in the record.

Primary county record

Embu · Directive or readiness process

11 September 2026

Authorities were reported to have established a disaster preparedness committee to coordinate county preparations.

Publish the committee mandate, county plan, risk map, assigned actions and meeting decisions.

The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found.

News report

Garissa · Execution reported

7 September 2026

The county preparedness plan, hotspots and evacuation centres were reported mapped. Kenya Red Cross reported trained first-line responders, positioned supplies and equipment, and standby boats and vehicles.

Publish the plan, resource inventory, quantities, exact locations, county responsibilities and replenishment schedule.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of its budget, release or spending was found.

Named official and response-partner statements

Homa Bay · National programme only

11 September 2026

The county is named in national health and livestock preparedness coverage, but no fresh county-specific implementation record was located in the review window.

Publish the current county contingency plan, assignments, flood works, stocks and delivery dates.

No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the national programmes was found.

National programme coverage

Isiolo · National programme only

11 September 2026

The national livestock plan was launched in Isiolo and names the county for initial implementation, but no fresh county-owned action record was located.

Publish Isiolo’s assigned measures, county owner, target locations and delivery schedule.

No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found.

National programme coverage

Kajiado · Directive or readiness process

28 August 2026

A public preparedness process was reported around flood prevention, local risk identification and community action, with residents urged to act before the rains.

Publish the agreed county actions, responsible departments, works and evidence of completion.

The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found.

Government news report

Kakamega · Directive or readiness process

8 September 2026

The county published an official advisory for enhanced October–December rainfall. The advisory establishes communication, not completed preparedness work.

Publish the county response plan, high-risk locations, responsible units and dated mitigation work.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

Primary county record

Kericho · Execution reported

11 September 2026

Kipkelion East and West were reported mapped for mudslide risk, while municipal boards were clearing stormwater drains and issuing relocation advice.

Publish work locations, work orders, progress, completion records and shelter arrangements.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

News report

Kiambu · Directive or readiness process

10 September 2026

County and national officials were reported to have activated coordination around hotspots, early warning, public awareness and emergency response; earlier reporting called on water companies to clear drainage.

Publish the risk map, drain-clearance sites, responsible utilities, work progress and evacuation arrangements.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

Government news report

Kilifi · Execution reported

24 September 2026

The 11 September county report describes preparedness activity. Parliament’s 24 September notice adds a Malindi sanitation direction; reallocation and cleaning are municipal claims, with delivery still open.

Publish Malindi’s works roadmap, budget authority, payment and completion records, alongside county stock and evacuation evidence.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found.

Verified oversight; municipal implementation claims

Kirinyaga · No fresh local evidence

Checked 12 September 2026

No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.

Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including local risks and assigned measures.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

No county source found for the review period

Kisii · Procurement initiated

Listed 2 October 2026; verified 8 October

The health department’s notice listed on 2 October specifies tender 2407736-2026/2027, a KSh45 million estimate and bids closing 12 October at 10am. Delivery is required 5–30 days after a purchase order or contract; its issue date is not evidenced.

Publish evaluation, award, contract or purchase-order date, inspection, receipt and distribution to community health promoters.

KSh45 million is a tender estimate. Appropriation, release, award, payment and delivery are not evidenced in this file.

Primary county tender document; invitation and delivery schedule

Kisumu · Execution reported

11 September 2026

About ten evacuation centres in Nyando were reported prepared and stocked with food, non-food items, medical supplies, mosquito nets and waterborne-disease medicines.

Publish centre locations, stock inventories, custody records, access arrangements and the status of planned river and dyke work.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found.

Named administrator statement in a news report

Kitui · National programme only

11 September 2026

Kitui is named in the national livestock plan. Current farmer advice is public, but no fresh county-owned El Niño execution record was located in the review window.

Publish the county plan, agricultural measures, target locations, owners and delivery evidence.

No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found.

National programme coverage

Kwale · Directive or readiness process

11 September 2026

Authorities were reported to have identified flood-prone areas, worked with village elders on warnings and identified halls, churches and mosques for evacuation use.

Publish the county plan, verified shelter list, accessibility, responsible officers and readiness checks.

The county is named in the national health plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found.

News report

Laikipia · Execution reported

4 September 2026

The governor reported that blocked drainage clearance had started, alongside identification of locations where residents might require assistance or relocation.

Publish cleared locations, work progress, evacuation sites, completion evidence and response ownership.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

Governor statement reported by mainstream media

Lamu · Directive or readiness process

9 September 2026

The county reported a disaster preparedness workplan and convened a four-day multi-stakeholder training on early warning, anticipatory action and coordinated response.

Publish the workplan, resource allocation, evacuation sites, owners and evidence that planned actions have started.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found.

Government news report citing county officials

Machakos · Execution reported

Published 11 October 2026

A two-day joint water-rescue course at Athi River Dam is reported complete. The county also reports drainage clearing in several towns, public sensitisation, published emergency contacts and activation of a multi-agency response system.

Publish the training roster and readiness checks, named drainage towns and sites, responsible units, activation instrument, mobilisation period, deployment plan and completion evidence.

No budget authority, allocation, release, procurement, expenditure or payment record for these measures is evidenced in this file.

Government news report citing Kenya Red Cross in Machakos and the county fire and rescue service

Makueni · Execution reported

Account dated 8 October; published 9 October 2026

The county reports ongoing works at the Kyanzonzo and Munyuni rivers in Kalawa Ward, including a sand dam and a one-metre retaining wall, and inspection of the 400-metre Uma–Kalambya Road in Kithungo/Kitundu Ward. It says the projects are being implemented through its Emergency Fund. The earlier KSh152 million preparedness requirement remains a projected total.

Publish the Emergency Fund authority and allocation, release records, procurement or work orders, payments, inspection and completion evidence for the named sites.

The Emergency Fund route is identified, but appropriation, release, contract value, payment and completion are not evidenced in this file.

Primary county account of an inspection and works reported under way

Mandera · Directive or readiness process

1 September 2026

The county is developing a participatory scenario plan with the World Food Programme, county departments, the National Drought Management Authority and humanitarian partners to identify scenarios and early actions.

Publish the completed plan, selected early actions, responsible institutions, triggers and delivery timetable.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found.

Primary county record

Marsabit · Directive or readiness process

10 October 2026

Marsabit hosted the launch of the RANGE Crisis Modifier for Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu. The announced pathway covers drainage, rangeland and water rehabilitation, livestock vaccination, cash for work and offtake, but county-level delivery is not yet established.

Publish the trigger, county work plan, beneficiary rules, accredited providers, release and procurement records, delivery dates and outputs.

The article gives inconsistent descriptions of the programme and crisis-modifier amount. No amount is treated as a verified county release or expenditure.

Government news report; mechanism launch

Meru · Directive or readiness process

11 September 2026

Landslide and flood hotspots were reported identified. A KSh29 million emergency allocation was reported for 2026/27, while the same report said no current-year emergency relief allocation was available.

Publish the hotspot map, response plan, current funding route, works and evidence of implementation.

KSh29 million is reported in the 2026/27 budget, but no public record of its release or spending was found.

News report

Migori · Execution reported

17 August 2026

The county was reported to have allocated KSh44.2 million and purchased relief supplies including food and non-food items; residents later called for early mitigation in Nyatike.

Publish the budget line, stock inventory, storage, custody, distribution rules and flood-mitigation work.

KSh44.2 million and purchases are reported; release, payment and inventory records were not publicly available for this assessment.

Government news report

Mombasa · Execution reported

10 October 2026

Maintenance teams are reported clearing major storm drains, removing waste and finishing box culverts. The county also reports that 300 county and national officers completed rescue, marine-safety, casualty-management and emergency-response exercises.

Publish named work sites, contracts, resource mobilisation, inspection and completion records, plus deployment evidence for trained teams.

A KSh20 million emergency allocation was reported earlier, but its release, procurement and spending remain unverified.

Government news report citing county and national officials

Murang’a · Execution reported

11 September 2026

Youth Service teams were reported deployed to clear drainage in major towns. The report also identified blocked sewer and feeder-road drainage gaps.

Publish deployment sites, work progress, completion records and action on the identified drainage gaps.

KSh27.7 million is reported for disaster management and social welfare, but no public record of its release or spending was found.

News report

Nairobi · Execution reported

21 August 2026

Ongoing drainage and flood-mitigation works were reported across vulnerable areas under a multi-agency programme, with hotspot mapping and emergency coordination also active.

Publish the full site list, contracts, progress certificates, expenditure and completed-work verification.

A KSh2.4 billion programme and KSh2 billion drainage component are reported; release and expenditure are not established here.

News report citing county programme information

Nakuru · Execution reported

9 September 2026

The county reported a multi-agency response, bridge structural assessments across 11 sub-counties and planned immediate dredging and culvert unblocking in Naivasha.

Publish assessment findings, work orders, start and completion evidence, and high-risk settlement arrangements.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

Government news report citing county officials

Nandi · No fresh local evidence

Checked 12 September 2026

No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.

Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including landslide and flood risks and assigned measures.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

No county source found for the review period

Narok · Directive or readiness process

3 September 2026

County preparedness around vulnerable communities, flood and landslide hotspots and critical infrastructure was reported; prior stormwater works and raised footpaths were cited in exposed areas.

Publish the current plan, hotspot map, condition of previous works, response resources and delivery dates.

The county is named in the livestock plan, but no public record of a county allocation or release was found.

Mainstream news report

Nyamira · No fresh local evidence

Checked 12 September 2026

No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.

Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including local risks and assigned measures.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

No county source found for the review period

Nyandarua · Execution reported

8 October 2026; admitted 11 October

The county executive reports KSh75 million set aside for El Niño preparedness and records a clean-up flag-off in Ol Kalou. Separate environmental allocations are not treated as part of the preparedness amount without an attributable budget trail.

Publish the KSh75 million budget authority, programme of work, release, procurement and expenditure, and document the clean-up’s scope and completion.

The statement establishes a reported set-aside, not appropriation, release, payment or county-wide delivery.

Government news report citing the county executive

Nyeri · Execution reported

11 September 2026

KSh20 million was reported set aside; schools were identified for evacuation use, drainage improvements were reported in Mathira and Kieni, and each sub-county was said to have an ambulance.

Publish the budget line and release, named centres, drainage-work progress, ambulance readiness and exercise records.

KSh20 million is reported, but no public record of its release, procurement or spending was found.

News report

Samburu · National programme only

11 September 2026

Samburu is named in the national livestock plan, but no fresh county-specific preparedness or execution record was located in the review window.

Publish the county contingency plan, pastoralist risks, assigned actions, resources and delivery evidence.

No public record of the county’s share, release or spending under the livestock plan was found.

National programme coverage

Siaya · Directive or readiness process

8 September 2026

The county convened a multi-sectoral session to refine its Multi-Hazard Contingency Plan, validate mapped risk zones and define early-warning and response arrangements.

Publish the revised plan, departmental emergency budgets, mitigation works, owners and delivery dates.

Named in national health and livestock plans; dedicated departmental budgets were identified as a need, not a completed release.

Primary county record

Taita Taveta · No fresh local evidence

Checked 12 September 2026

No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.

Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, river and settlement risks.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

No county source found for the review period

Tana River · Directive or readiness process

11 September 2026

The county and partners were reported to have prepared sector-specific advisories for safety and early action, with dissemination planned through radio, barazas, community structures and digital channels.

Publish the advisories, current contingency plan, evacuation sites, responsible actors and evidence of delivery to exposed communities.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found.

News report

Tharaka-Nithi · No fresh local evidence

Checked 12 September 2026

No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.

Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, river and road risks.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

No county source found for the review period

Trans Nzoia · Directive or readiness process

11 September 2026

Emergency committees were reported activated, flood and landslide areas mapped across all five sub-counties and volunteers trained, while a spot check found no repair under way on damaged Kitale drainage.

Publish the county plan, training completion, drainage works, evacuation routes, owners and delivery dates.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

News report with implementation spot check

Turkana · Directive or readiness process

3 September 2026

The County Steering Group began multi-agency contingency planning, with a command centre, lead agency, resource mobilisation and pre-positioning still framed as recommendations.

Publish the completed plan, command-centre status, lead agency, stock positions, evacuation sites and assigned early actions.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found.

Primary county record

Uasin Gishu · Execution reported

11 September 2026

Heavy machinery was reported deployed in Kapseret, Kesses and Turbo to clear waterways, open drainage routes and remove silt from culverts.

Publish work orders, exact sites, progress and completion evidence, and planned safety-centre readiness.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

News report

Vihiga · No fresh local evidence

Checked 12 September 2026

No county plan, directive, procurement notice or implementation report was found for the review period.

Publish the county response strategy required by the national direction, including slope, drainage and public-health risks.

No county budget release or procurement record tied to this forecast was found.

No county source found for the review period

Wajir · Procurement initiated

14 September 2026; reviewed 2 October

The national water-works agency advertised Masalale–Kilkey flood-control works in Eldas. Earlier county emergency planning remains part of the record; neither establishes completion.

Establish evaluation, award, contract, work schedule and completed outputs. County stock placement and vaccination also remain open.

The agency states funds were received; no amount or release trail is supplied. KSh3 million is tender security, not project finance.

Primary procurement notice; national agency, not county government

West Pokot · Directive or readiness process

3 September 2026

The county activated departments and disaster structures, validated a risk-assessment tool and planned field assessments, scenario planning and community sensitisation.

Publish field-assessment results, scenarios, assigned early actions, local owners and implementation evidence.

The county is named in national health and livestock plans, but no public record of a county or programme release was found.

Named county statements in a news report