Signal
Regional and national outlooks are source-linked; ICPAC now places north-eastern Kenya within a 90% enhanced-rainfall likelihood zone.
Preserved snapshot · revision 1.3
Kenya’s short rains: the forecast is only the first decision
This snapshot shows the assessment as it stood on 11 September 2026; later evidence and revisions are not included.
Abbreviations: Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); October–December (OND); Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD); National Drought Management Authority (NDMA); Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF); arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs); World Health Organization (WHO); World Food Programme (WFP); and Kenya National Public Health Institute (KNPHI).
- Record
- KE-OND-2026-001
- State
- Decision window open
- Opened
- 9 September 2026
- Reviewed
- 11 September 2026
Active signal
ICPAC’s decision-maker guidance places north-eastern Kenya within a 90% likelihood zone for enhanced October–December rainfall. Kenya’s national outlook continues to favour wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the country.
Assessment stages
Findings published in revision 1.3
Trigger
The health contingency plan has been activated, establishing a sectoral response trigger; its threshold and broader cross-sector triggers remain unpublished.
Authority
National health actors and Mandera’s county preparedness department are now named; other county and sector ownership remains to be evidenced.
Commitment
A national health plan activation and Mandera planning process are verified; funded measures, procurement and assigned delivery remain open.
Execution
No downstream preparedness or service action has entered the record.
Outcome
The seasonal decision window precedes the outcome period.
Source register