Signal
Regional and national outlooks are source-linked; ICPAC now places north-eastern Kenya within a 90% enhanced-rainfall likelihood zone.
Preserved snapshot · revision 1.4
Kenya’s short rains: the forecast is only the first decision
This snapshot shows the assessment as it stood on 12 September 2026; later evidence and revisions are not included.
Abbreviations: Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); October–December (OND); Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD); National Drought Management Authority (NDMA); Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF); arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs); World Health Organization (WHO); World Food Programme (WFP); and Kenya National Public Health Institute (KNPHI).
- Record
- KE-OND-2026-001
- State
- Decision window open
- Opened
- 9 September 2026
- Reviewed
- 12 September 2026
Active signal
ICPAC’s decision-maker guidance places north-eastern Kenya within a 90% likelihood zone for enhanced October–December rainfall. Kenya’s national outlook continues to favour wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the country.
Assessment stages
Findings published in revision 1.4
Trigger
The health contingency plan has been activated, establishing a sectoral response trigger; its threshold and broader cross-sector triggers remain unpublished.
Authority
IGAD and ICPAC now hold a dated regional convening step; national health actors and Mandera’s preparedness department remain named for the Kenyan actions already on file.
Commitment
A national health plan activation and Mandera planning process are verified. The scheduled ministerial forum is not yet evidence of an endorsed instruction, finance or assigned delivery.
Execution
No downstream preparedness or service action has entered the record.
Outcome
The seasonal decision window precedes the outcome period.
Source register