Preserved snapshot · revision 1.8
This snapshot shows the assessment as it stood on 26 September 2026; later evidence and revisions are not included.
Abbreviations: Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); October–December (OND); Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD); National Drought Management Authority (NDMA); arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs); World Health Organization (WHO); World Food Programme (WFP); and Kenya National Public Health Institute (KNPHI).
Decision-maker guidance from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced rainfall during October–December. IGAD member states have adopted a regional Call to Action, and the Kenya Meteorological Department has launched a national Forecast-to-Farmer proof of concept for the short rains. Kenya’s public evidence of county delivery and released finance remains markedly uneven.
Assessment stages
For October–December 2026, regional and national outlooks identify an enhanced-rainfall risk; the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood.
IGAD member states have adopted a regional Call to Action, Kenya’s Ministry of Health has issued an operating advisory to all 47 counties, the national government has directed every county to prepare a response strategy, a livestock plan has been announced for 24 counties, and KMD has launched a Forecast-to-Farmer proof of concept for the short rains.
Kenya’s delivery responsibility lies with national coordination bodies, sector institutions and county governments. KMD now convenes and oversees the agricultural forecast pilot, with KALRO and participating advisory organisations expected to translate and distribute authorised products. IGAD retains regional coordination and reporting duties.
The IGAD Call to Action commits member states to activate plans, pre-position supplies and make finance move on agreed triggers. KMD’s pilot charter commits participating organisations to test an authorised forecast-to-advice pathway during the short rains. Kenya’s 2.1 billion Kenyan shillings (KSh) livestock plan and several county allocations remain reported, while release, award and expenditure evidence is incomplete.
Reports from 13 counties describe measures under execution, while Kisii has begun procurement. KMD’s pilot has been launched and names established dissemination channels, but the record does not yet establish pilot advisories reaching farmers, farmer testing or operational results.
Not yet. Assessing public outcomes must await the October–December season and the evidence it produces.
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