Preserved snapshot · revision 1.5
This snapshot shows the assessment as it stood on 12 September 2026; later evidence and revisions are not included.
Abbreviations: Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); October–December (OND); Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD); National Drought Management Authority (NDMA); Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF); arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs); World Health Organization (WHO); World Food Programme (WFP); and Kenya National Public Health Institute (KNPHI).
Decision-maker guidance from the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced rainfall during October–December. Kenya’s national outlook favours wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the country. County reports describe a markedly uneven state of preparation, ranging from drainage works and pre-positioned supplies to planning processes and unverified announcements.
Assessment stages
For October–December 2026, regional and national outlooks identify an enhanced-rainfall risk; the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) assigns north-eastern Kenya a 90 per cent likelihood.
The health plan is active, the national government has directed all 47 counties to prepare response strategies, and a livestock plan has been announced for 24 counties.
Responsibility lies with national coordination bodies, sector institutions and county governments, although many county records do not name the lead officer or delivery timetable.
A livestock plan valued at 2.1 billion Kenyan shillings (KSh) and several county allocations are reported; Kisii has initiated procurement. Release, award and expenditure evidence remains incomplete.
Reports from 13 counties describe measures under execution, while Kisii has begun procurement. Much of the evidence comes from official statements or secondary reporting, and the extent of completion remains unclear.
Not yet. Assessing public outcomes must await the October–December season and the evidence it produces.
Source register
